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Bitcoin Difficulty Ribbon Calculation For Future Price Prediction

Bitcoin Difficulty Ribbon Calculation For Future Price Prediction
We may notice that the second 2-year cycle (6500%) is at 38% of the first 2-year cycle (16982%). Therefore if this pattern continues, we might see another parabolic increase which could again be expressed as 38% of the last cycle, which would translate into 2470%. escalation. If we choose variable x to be 3933 dollars and we know it will experience shift in price by whopping 2470%, then that means that the price could potentially reach… Well, you do the math :)
https://preview.redd.it/916edpwtz4n31.png?width=768&format=png&auto=webp&s=d34dc8a04ac9528bafbd7444b68cd66910db7a93
submitted by TheAnchor_io to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Bitcoin at $ 288,000? BTC price shows bullish signal like 2016

Bitcoin at $ 288,000? BTC price shows bullish signal like 2016
Bitcoin's price development has been relatively stable in recent weeks.
The cryptocurrency has been trading in the $ 9,200 range since early June, which is the price at the time of publication.
However, Bitcoin is currently showing signals that could indicate an upcoming bull market.
According to a report by the Kraken Stock Exchange, Bitcoin is only a 10% jump away from entering a massive upward trend.
As Kraken describes, to enter a bull market, Bitcoin must break the key resistance at $ 10,500, as shown below.
https://preview.redd.it/0d4bm64zsla51.png?width=1276&format=png&auto=webp&s=b3a670c135792f34af6714fc8ab9d48cef7dc77e
With that in mind, the report says Bitcoin could soon break resistance or take the risk of testing support at $ 6,000 to $ 7,000.
This would end a period that some analysts have described as very stable. In fact, this is similar to the price development in 2016 and 2017, when Bitcoin initially tended to move sideways for a very long time and finally reached its all-time high of USD 20,000 in late 2017.
According to analyst Moon Capital, the Bitcoin hash ribbons have crossed, revealing a massive buy signal that has historically pushed Bitcoin's price up. The signal was also there before the 2017 Bull Run.
Therefore, the analyst predicts that BTC will rise to $ 288,000.
The "hash ribbons" indicator is based on the hash rate of the Bitcoin network.
It is calculated by comparing the short-term moving average and the long-term moving average of the Bitcoin hash rate. As soon as these two cross, a bullish indicator is generated.
A breakdown is considered bearish.
Capriole's digital asset manager, Charles Edwards, also noted the formation of this indicator.
However, Edwards recommended waiting until midnight today (July 12th UTC) for the crossing of the hash ribbons to be confirmed. He also said the BTC price for confirmation should close above $ 9,230.

Bitcoin fundamentals support upcoming uptrend

On the other hand, Bitcoin's fundamentals seem to support a bull market. Bitcoin's hash rate has increased significantly since the difficulty adjustment in June.
According to blockchain.com, the hash rate of Bitcoin reached a new high of 125.99 terra hashes per second (TH / s) on July 7.
In this context, analyst and inventor of Bitcoin's stock-to-flow model, Plan B, said Bitcoin has weathered the worst of the past few months.
In addition, he stressed that the cryptocurrency will soon peak at its hash rate, confirming the good health of the Bitcoin network.
submitted by jakkkmotivator to thecryptobasic [link] [comments]

Ethereum 2.0: Why, How And Then?

Ethereum 2.0: Why, How And Then?
Why update Ethereum? One problem of the Ethereum network that the update should solve is scalability. At the moment, its blockchain can perform to 15 transactions per second, which is over two times more than that of bitcoin. However, this speed is still not enough for a large number of users. For example, the Visa payment system can perform up to 24 thousand transactions per second.
Adding an Optimistic Rollup technology will help to solve the scalability problem. According to Vitalik Buterin, the creator of Ethereum, its implementation will occur after the network’s update and will increase its throughput to 1000 transactions per second.
by StealthEX
Another solution to this problem is a change in the algorithm. Currently, Ethereum runs on the same protocol as Bitcoin, Proof-of-Work, confirmation of transactions in the cryptocurrency network occurs using the computing power of processors.
Using the Proof-of-Work algorithm limits the growth of the Ethereum network bandwidth. To withstand a large load, more miners are needed, but the growth of their number slows down since it becomes more difficult to mine cryptocurrency and, consequently, less profitable.
This is the reason the Ethereum development team is planning to switch to the Proof-of-Stake algorithm. Unlike the PoW, it does not require the use of computing power to confirm blocks. Instead of miners, transactions will be confirmed by validators. To become a validator, the user should have 32 ETH and install a special client. From a technical point of view, this is easier than buying mining devices and maintaining their functionality, as well as looking for access to cheap electricity. Thus, the system will no longer need expensive hardware.
The main solution to the scalability problem will be to implement sharding. Current Ethereum network is a unified database. After the update, the blockchain will be divided into autonomous, interacting blocks — shards, each of which will process particular transactions and smart contracts, which, however, will be recognized by the entire Ethereum blockchain. Nodes that form the shard process information separately, this allows maintaining the principle of decentralization. This is important since the risk of centralization is another big problem of the old algorithm.
Since the complexity of mining has increased over time, and now this process requires having expensive equipment and access to cheap electricity, small participants can not afford to stay in the game. In such conditions, big pools of miners that can provide higher productivity have a decisive advantage. For example, in April, more than 50% of the computing power of the Ethereum network was provided by only two mining pools. This creates a significant risk of centralization and “51% attacks”.
Validators will confirm transactions and get rewards in the form of passive income. According to the project’s roadmap, this amount will vary from 1.81% to 18.1%. The profitability of the stacking will depend on the number of validators. The more of them, the smaller the amount they get. However, there will be some costs. In the same Ethereum 2.0 roadmap, developers mentioned that the cost of validating transactions, based on rough calculations, will be about $180 per year. One of the developers of the project, Justin Drake, predicts that on average the validator will receive an income of 5% per year.

What is the estimated Ethereum 2.0 release date?

The launch of Ethereum 2.0 will take place gradually, in six stages, the “zero” of which is expected this summer. However, it is worth noting that due to finding vulnerabilities, the dates have already been shifted several times–initially, the transition to the new version was planned in 2019.
One of the developers of the project, Afri Schoedon, said that the launch could be postponed to 2021. According to him, under favourable circumstances, the main network can be presented in November of this year, but there are certain difficulties in this.
Schoedon explained that before launching ETH 2.0, all of its clients must be brought to the same specifications. After that, the developer’s team needs to open a unified deposit contract so that users can transfer their assets from the old chain to the new one. Between these stages, developers also need additional time, so they could test all aspects of the new system.
As it usually happens, there’s going to be two parallel blockchains as a result of the hard fork. The first one, ETH1, will continue to work using an old protocol, while the update will be implemented on ETH2. Users will be able to transfer their coins from the old blockchain to the new one, but not vice versa. The appearance of sharding will allow developers to move to phase 1.5 — during this phase, ETH1 will merge with ETH2, becoming one of the 64 “shards” of the updated blockchain. In the second phase, smart contracts become available on ETH2, which can be considered the full start of its economic activity.

And what are expectations?

Updating the Ethereum network will increase its technical capabilities, namely, it will speed up and reduce the cost of transactions, as well as make the blockchain less vulnerable for centralization process.
Currently, the absolute majority of decentralized finance projects are developed using the Ethereum platform. The Ethereum 2.0 release will probably attract even more partners who will use the blockchain for their projects.
Ryan Watkins, Messari Analysis company’s researcher, highly values the importance of updating.
“ETH 2.0 is a much stronger catalyst than the Bitcoin halving simply because it’s an uncertain and fundamental change.” — Ryan Watkins wrote on his Twitter account
And the part about uncertainty is hard to disagree with. Of course, there are some concerns about the bright Ethereum future. The coming hard fork carries with it potential negative consequences. For example, after switching to the PoS algorithm, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may well admit Ethereum as a security, which will lead to legal complications similar to those faced by Pavel Durov when trying to launch his TON blockchain platform.
For now, ETH is the most popular coin for mining at home, and most of these miners will probably just leave the network.
There is also a risk that the price of Ethereum may fall. To receive passive income for storing ETH, the user will not only need to have 32 coins but also block them through a special transaction. They will not be able to withdraw these blocked funds immediately. As stated in the project roadmap, the cryptocurrency withdrawal process will take at least 18 hours. This could take even more time if many users request the return of tokens at the same time. Thus, if ETH falls in price, it will be impossible to sell it immediately, and there is a risk of losing some capital and all the income received from stacking.
Nevertheless, investors are mostly optimistic — the volume of Ethereum options on the Deribit exchange has grown to a historical high, which indicates confidence in the future of Ethereum project. The ETH price is also growing, having overcome the consequences of the March collapse of cryptocurrencies.
Most experts agree that Ethereum price will grow after the update. On the one hand, the altcoin will become more expensive, as it will become a more attractive investment. On the other hand, the offer will decrease, as users will start transferring coins from the first version of the network to the second, to block them for passive income.
If you want to participate in the future fate of the ETH project, you can buy Ethereum using our service. We provide fast, anonymous and limitless swaps between over 250 cryptocurrencies. Just go to StealthEX and follow these easy steps:
✔ Choose the pair and the amount for your exchange. For example BTC to ETH.
✔ Press the “Start exchange” button.
✔ Provide the recipient address to which the coins will be transferred.
✔ Move your cryptocurrency for the exchange.
✔ Receive your coins.
Follow us on Medium, Twitter, Facebook, and Reddit to get StealthEX.io updates and the latest news about the crypto world. For all requests message us via [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]).
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Original article was posted on https://stealthex.io/blog/2020/06/30/ethereum-2-0-why-how-and-then/.
submitted by Stealthex_io to StealthEX [link] [comments]

Ethereum 2.0: Why, How And Then?

Ethereum 2.0: Why, How And Then?
Why update Ethereum? One problem of the Ethereum network that the update should solve is scalability. At the moment, its blockchain can perform to 15 transactions per second, which is over two times more than that of bitcoin. However, this speed is still not enough for a large number of users. For example, the Visa payment system can perform up to 24 thousand transactions per second.
Adding an Optimistic Rollup technology will help to solve the scalability problem. According to Vitalik Buterin, the creator of Ethereum, its implementation will occur after the network’s update and will increase its throughput to 1000 transactions per second.
by StealthEX
Another solution to this problem is a change in the algorithm. Currently, Ethereum runs on the same protocol as Bitcoin, Proof-of-Work, confirmation of transactions in the cryptocurrency network occurs using the computing power of processors.
Using the Proof-of-Work algorithm limits the growth of the Ethereum network bandwidth. To withstand a large load, more miners are needed, but the growth of their number slows down since it becomes more difficult to mine cryptocurrency and, consequently, less profitable.
This is the reason the Ethereum development team is planning to switch to the Proof-of-Stake algorithm. Unlike the PoW, it does not require the use of computing power to confirm blocks. Instead of miners, transactions will be confirmed by validators. To become a validator, the user should have 32 ETH and install a special client. From a technical point of view, this is easier than buying mining devices and maintaining their functionality, as well as looking for access to cheap electricity. Thus, the system will no longer need expensive hardware.
The main solution to the scalability problem will be to implement sharding. Current Ethereum network is a unified database. After the update, the blockchain will be divided into autonomous, interacting blocks — shards, each of which will process particular transactions and smart contracts, which, however, will be recognized by the entire Ethereum blockchain. Nodes that form the shard process information separately, this allows maintaining the principle of decentralization. This is important since the risk of centralization is another big problem of the old algorithm.
Since the complexity of mining has increased over time, and now this process requires having expensive equipment and access to cheap electricity, small participants can not afford to stay in the game. In such conditions, big pools of miners that can provide higher productivity have a decisive advantage. For example, in April, more than 50% of the computing power of the Ethereum network was provided by only two mining pools. This creates a significant risk of centralization and “51% attacks”.
Validators will confirm transactions and get rewards in the form of passive income. According to the project’s roadmap, this amount will vary from 1.81% to 18.1%. The profitability of the stacking will depend on the number of validators. The more of them, the smaller the amount they get. However, there will be some costs. In the same Ethereum 2.0 roadmap, developers mentioned that the cost of validating transactions, based on rough calculations, will be about $180 per year. One of the developers of the project, Justin Drake, predicts that on average the validator will receive an income of 5% per year.

What is the estimated Ethereum 2.0 release date?

The launch of Ethereum 2.0 will take place gradually, in six stages, the “zero” of which is expected this summer. However, it is worth noting that due to finding vulnerabilities, the dates have already been shifted several times–initially, the transition to the new version was planned in 2019.
One of the developers of the project, Afri Schoedon, said that the launch could be postponed to 2021. According to him, under favourable circumstances, the main network can be presented in November of this year, but there are certain difficulties in this.
Schoedon explained that before launching ETH 2.0, all of its clients must be brought to the same specifications. After that, the developer’s team needs to open a unified deposit contract so that users can transfer their assets from the old chain to the new one. Between these stages, developers also need additional time, so they could test all aspects of the new system.
As it usually happens, there’s going to be two parallel blockchains as a result of the hard fork. The first one, ETH1, will continue to work using an old protocol, while the update will be implemented on ETH2. Users will be able to transfer their coins from the old blockchain to the new one, but not vice versa. The appearance of sharding will allow developers to move to phase 1.5 — during this phase, ETH1 will merge with ETH2, becoming one of the 64 “shards” of the updated blockchain. In the second phase, smart contracts become available on ETH2, which can be considered the full start of its economic activity.

And what are expectations?

Updating the Ethereum network will increase its technical capabilities, namely, it will speed up and reduce the cost of transactions, as well as make the blockchain less vulnerable for centralization process.
Currently, the absolute majority of decentralized finance projects are developed using the Ethereum platform. The Ethereum 2.0 release will probably attract even more partners who will use the blockchain for their projects.
Ryan Watkins, Messari Analysis company’s researcher, highly values the importance of updating.
“ETH 2.0 is a much stronger catalyst than the Bitcoin halving simply because it’s an uncertain and fundamental change.” — Ryan Watkins wrote on his Twitter account
And the part about uncertainty is hard to disagree with. Of course, there are some concerns about the bright Ethereum future. The coming hard fork carries with it potential negative consequences. For example, after switching to the PoS algorithm, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may well admit Ethereum as a security, which will lead to legal complications similar to those faced by Pavel Durov when trying to launch his TON blockchain platform.
For now, ETH is the most popular coin for mining at home, and most of these miners will probably just leave the network.
There is also a risk that the price of Ethereum may fall. To receive passive income for storing ETH, the user will not only need to have 32 coins but also block them through a special transaction. They will not be able to withdraw these blocked funds immediately. As stated in the project roadmap, the cryptocurrency withdrawal process will take at least 18 hours. This could take even more time if many users request the return of tokens at the same time. Thus, if ETH falls in price, it will be impossible to sell it immediately, and there is a risk of losing some capital and all the income received from stacking.
Nevertheless, investors are mostly optimistic — the volume of Ethereum options on the Deribit exchange has grown to a historical high, which indicates confidence in the future of Ethereum project. The ETH price is also growing, having overcome the consequences of the March collapse of cryptocurrencies.
Most experts agree that Ethereum price will grow after the update. On the one hand, the altcoin will become more expensive, as it will become a more attractive investment. On the other hand, the offer will decrease, as users will start transferring coins from the first version of the network to the second, to block them for passive income.
If you want to participate in the future fate of the ETH project, you can buy Ethereum using our service. We provide fast, anonymous and limitless swaps between over 250 cryptocurrencies. Just go to StealthEX and follow these easy steps:
✔ Choose the pair and the amount for your exchange. For example BTC to ETH.
✔ Press the “Start exchange” button.
✔ Provide the recipient address to which the coins will be transferred.
✔ Move your cryptocurrency for the exchange.
✔ Receive your coins.
Follow us on Medium, Twitter and Reddit to get StealthEX.io updates and the latest news about the crypto world. For all requests message us via [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]).
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Original article was posted on https://stealthex.io/blog/2020/06/30/ethereum-2-0-why-how-and-then/.
submitted by Stealthex_io to conspiracy [link] [comments]

Where is Bitcoin Going and When?

Where is Bitcoin Going and When?

The Federal Reserve and the United States government are pumping extreme amounts of money into the economy, already totaling over $484 billion. They are doing so because it already had a goal to inflate the United States Dollar (USD) so that the market can continue to all-time highs. It has always had this goal. They do not care how much inflation goes up by now as we are going into a depression with the potential to totally crash the US economy forever. They believe the only way to save the market from going to zero or negative values is to inflate it so much that it cannot possibly crash that low. Even if the market does not dip that low, inflation serves the interest of powerful people.
The impending crash of the stock market has ramifications for Bitcoin, as, though there is no direct ongoing-correlation between the two, major movements in traditional markets will necessarily affect Bitcoin. According to the Blockchain Center’s Cryptocurrency Correlation Tool, Bitcoin is not correlated with the stock market. However, when major market movements occur, they send ripples throughout the financial ecosystem which necessary affect even ordinarily uncorrelated assets.
Therefore, Bitcoin will reach X price on X date after crashing to a price of X by X date.

Stock Market Crash

The Federal Reserve has caused some serious consternation with their release of ridiculous amounts of money in an attempt to buoy the economy. At face value, it does not seem to have any rationale or logic behind it other than keeping the economy afloat long enough for individuals to profit financially and politically. However, there is an underlying basis to what is going on which is important to understand in order to profit financially.
All markets are functionally price probing systems. They constantly undergo a price-discovery process. In a fiat system, money is an illusory and a fundamentally synthetic instrument with no intrinsic value – similar to Bitcoin. The primary difference between Bitcoin is the underlying technology which provides a slew of benefits that fiat does not. Fiat, however, has an advantage in being able to have the support of powerful nation-states which can use their might to insure the currency’s prosperity.
Traditional stock markets are composed of indices (pl. of index). Indices are non-trading market instruments which are essentially summaries of business values which comprise them. They are continuously recalculated throughout a trading day, and sometimes reflected through tradable instruments such as Exchange Traded Funds or Futures. Indices are weighted by market capitalizations of various businesses.
Price theory essentially states that when a market fails to take out a new low in a given range, it will have an objective to take out the high. When a market fails to take out a new high, it has an objective to make a new low. This is why price-time charts go up and down, as it does this on a second-by-second, minute-by-minute, day-by-day, and even century-by-century basis. Therefore, market indices will always return to some type of bull market as, once a true low is formed, the market will have a price objective to take out a new high outside of its’ given range – which is an all-time high. Instruments can only functionally fall to zero, whereas they can grow infinitely.
So, why inflate the economy so much?
Deflation is disastrous for central banks and markets as it raises the possibility of producing an overall price objective of zero or negative values. Therefore, under a fractional reserve system with a fiat currency managed by a central bank – the goal of the central bank is to depreciate the currency. The dollar is manipulated constantly with the intention of depreciating its’ value.
Central banks have a goal of continued inflated fiat values. They tend to ordinarily contain it at less than ten percent (10%) per annum in order for the psyche of the general populace to slowly adjust price increases. As such, the markets are divorced from any other logic. Economic policy is the maintenance of human egos, not catering to fundamental analysis. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is well-known not to be a measure of actual growth or output. It is a measure of increase in dollars processed. Banks seek to produce raising numbers which make society feel like it is growing economically, making people optimistic. To do so, the currency is inflated, though inflation itself does not actually increase growth. When society is optimistic, it spends and engages in business – resulting in actual growth. It also encourages people to take on credit and debts, creating more fictional fiat.
Inflation is necessary for markets to continue to reach new heights, generating positive emotional responses from the populace, encouraging spending, encouraging debt intake, further inflating the currency, and increasing the sale of government bonds. The fiat system only survives by generating more imaginary money on a regular basis.
Bitcoin investors may profit from this by realizing that stock investors as a whole always stand to profit from the market so long as it is managed by a central bank and does not collapse entirely. If those elements are filled, it has an unending price objective to raise to new heights. It also allows us to realize that this response indicates that the higher-ups believe that the economy could crash in entirety, and it may be wise for investors to have multiple well-thought-out exit strategies.

Economic Analysis of Bitcoin

The reason why the Fed is so aggressively inflating the economy is due to fears that it will collapse forever or never rebound. As such, coupled with a global depression, a huge demand will appear for a reserve currency which is fundamentally different than the previous system. Bitcoin, though a currency or asset, is also a market. It also undergoes a constant price-probing process. Unlike traditional markets, Bitcoin has the exact opposite goal. Bitcoin seeks to appreciate in value and not depreciate. This has a quite different affect in that Bitcoin could potentially become worthless and have a price objective of zero.
Bitcoin was created in 2008 by a now famous mysterious figure known as Satoshi Nakamoto and its’ open source code was released in 2009. It was the first decentralized cryptocurrency to utilize a novel protocol known as the blockchain. Up to one megabyte of data may be sent with each transaction. It is decentralized, anonymous, transparent, easy to set-up, and provides myriad other benefits. Bitcoin is not backed up by anything other than its’ own technology.
Bitcoin is can never be expected to collapse as a framework, even were it to become worthless. The stock market has the potential to collapse in entirety, whereas, as long as the internet exists, Bitcoin will be a functional system with a self-authenticating framework. That capacity to persist regardless of the actual price of Bitcoin and the deflationary nature of Bitcoin means that it has something which fiat does not – inherent value.
Bitcoin is based on a distributed database known as the “blockchain.” Blockchains are essentially decentralized virtual ledger books, replete with pages known as “blocks.” Each page in a ledger is composed of paragraph entries, which are the actual transactions in the block.
Blockchains store information in the form of numerical transactions, which are just numbers. We can consider these numbers digital assets, such as Bitcoin. The data in a blockchain is immutable and recorded only by consensus-based algorithms. Bitcoin is cryptographic and all transactions are direct, without intermediary, peer-to-peer.
Bitcoin does not require trust in a central bank. It requires trust on the technology behind it, which is open-source and may be evaluated by anyone at any time. Furthermore, it is impossible to manipulate as doing so would require all of the nodes in the network to be hacked at once – unlike the stock market which is manipulated by the government and “Market Makers”. Bitcoin is also private in that, though the ledge is openly distributed, it is encrypted. Bitcoin’s blockchain has one of the greatest redundancy and information disaster recovery systems ever developed.
Bitcoin has a distributed governance model in that it is controlled by its’ users. There is no need to trust a payment processor or bank, or even to pay fees to such entities. There are also no third-party fees for transaction processing. As the ledge is immutable and transparent it is never possible to change it – the data on the blockchain is permanent. The system is not easily susceptible to attacks as it is widely distributed. Furthermore, as users of Bitcoin have their private keys assigned to their transactions, they are virtually impossible to fake. No lengthy verification, reconciliation, nor clearing process exists with Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is based on a proof-of-work algorithm. Every transaction on the network has an associated mathetical “puzzle”. Computers known as miners compete to solve the complex cryptographic hash algorithm that comprises that puzzle. The solution is proof that the miner engaged in sufficient work. The puzzle is known as a nonce, a number used only once. There is only one major nonce at a time and it issues 12.5 Bitcoin. Once it is solved, the fact that the nonce has been solved is made public.
A block is mined on average of once every ten minutes. However, the blockchain checks every 2,016,000 minutes (approximately four years) if 201,600 blocks were mined. If it was faster, it increases difficulty by half, thereby deflating Bitcoin. If it was slower, it decreases, thereby inflating Bitcoin. It will continue to do this until zero Bitcoin are issued, projected at the year 2140. On the twelfth of May, 2020, the blockchain will halve the amount of Bitcoin issued when each nonce is guessed. When Bitcoin was first created, fifty were issued per block as a reward to miners. 6.25 BTC will be issued from that point on once each nonce is solved.
Unlike fiat, Bitcoin is a deflationary currency. As BTC becomes scarcer, demand for it will increase, also raising the price. In this, BTC is similar to gold. It is predictable in its’ output, unlike the USD, as it is based on a programmed supply. We can predict BTC’s deflation and inflation almost exactly, if not exactly. Only 21 million BTC will ever be produced, unless the entire network concedes to change the protocol – which is highly unlikely.
Some of the drawbacks to BTC include congestion. At peak congestion, it may take an entire day to process a Bitcoin transaction as only three to five transactions may be processed per second. Receiving priority on a payment may cost up to the equivalent of twenty dollars ($20). Bitcoin mining consumes enough energy in one day to power a single-family home for an entire week.

Trading or Investing?

The fundamental divide in trading revolves around the question of market structure. Many feel that the market operates totally randomly and its’ behavior cannot be predicted. For the purposes of this article, we will assume that the market has a structure, but that that structure is not perfect. That market structure naturally generates chart patterns as the market records prices in time. In order to determine when the stock market will crash, causing a major decline in BTC price, we will analyze an instrument, an exchange traded fund, which represents an index, as opposed to a particular stock. The price patterns of the various stocks in an index are effectively smoothed out. In doing so, a more technical picture arises. Perhaps the most popular of these is the SPDR S&P Standard and Poor 500 Exchange Traded Fund ($SPY).
In trading, little to no concern is given about value of underlying asset. We are concerned primarily about liquidity and trading ranges, which are the amount of value fluctuating on a short-term basis, as measured by volatility-implied trading ranges. Fundamental analysis plays a role, however markets often do not react to real-world factors in a logical fashion. Therefore, fundamental analysis is more appropriate for long-term investing.
The fundamental derivatives of a chart are time (x-axis) and price (y-axis). The primary technical indicator is price, as everything else is lagging in the past. Price represents current asking price and incorrectly implementing positions based on price is one of the biggest trading errors.
Markets and currencies ordinarily have noise, their tendency to back-and-fill, which must be filtered out for true pattern recognition. That noise does have a utility, however, in allowing traders second chances to enter favorable positions at slightly less favorable entry points. When you have any market with enough liquidity for historical data to record a pattern, then a structure can be divined. The market probes prices as part of an ongoing price-discovery process. Market technicians must sometimes look outside of the technical realm and use visual inspection to ascertain the relevance of certain patterns, using a qualitative eye that recognizes the underlying quantitative nature
Markets and instruments rise slower than they correct, however they rise much more than they fall. In the same vein, instruments can only fall to having no worth, whereas they could theoretically grow infinitely and have continued to grow over time. Money in a fiat system is illusory. It is a fundamentally synthetic instrument which has no intrinsic value. Hence, the recent seemingly illogical fluctuations in the market.
According to trade theory, the unending purpose of a market or instrument is to create and break price ranges according to the laws of supply and demand. We must determine when to trade based on each market inflection point as defined in price and in time as opposed to abandoning the trend (as the contrarian trading in this sub often does). Time and Price symmetry must be used to be in accordance with the trend. When coupled with a favorable risk to reward ratio, the ability to stay in the market for most of the defined time period, and adherence to risk management rules; the trader has a solid methodology for achieving considerable gains.
We will engage in a longer term market-oriented analysis to avoid any time-focused pressure. The Bitcoin market is open twenty-four-hours a day, so trading may be done when the individual is ready, without any pressing need to be constantly alert. Let alone, we can safely project months in advance with relatively high accuracy. Bitcoin is an asset which an individual can both trade and invest, however this article will be focused on trading due to the wide volatility in BTC prices over the short-term.

Technical Indicator Analysis of Bitcoin

Technical indicators are often considered self-fulfilling prophecies due to mass-market psychology gravitating towards certain common numbers yielded from them. They are also often discounted when it comes to BTC. That means a trader must be especially aware of these numbers as they can prognosticate market movements. Often, they are meaningless in the larger picture of things.
  • Volume – derived from the market itself, it is mostly irrelevant. The major problem with volume for stocks is that the US market open causes tremendous volume surges eradicating any intrinsic volume analysis. This does not occur with BTC, as it is open twenty-four-seven. At major highs and lows, the market is typically anemic. Most traders are not active at terminal discretes (peaks and troughs) because of levels of fear. Volume allows us confidence in time and price symmetry market inflection points, if we observe low volume at a foretold range of values. We can rationalize that an absolute discrete is usually only discovered and anticipated by very few traders. As the general market realizes it, a herd mentality will push the market in the direction favorable to defending it. Volume is also useful for swing trading, as chances for swing’s validity increases if an increase in volume is seen on and after the swing’s activation. Volume is steadily decreasing. Lows and highs are reached when volume is lower.
Therefore, due to the relatively high volume on the 12th of March, we can safely determine that a low for BTC was not reached.
  • VIX – Volatility Index, this technical indicator indicates level of fear by the amount of options-based “insurance” in portfolios. A low VIX environment, less than 20 for the S&P index, indicates a stable market with a possible uptrend. A high VIX, over 20, indicates a possible downtrend. VIX is essentially useless for BTC as BTC-based options do not exist. It allows us to predict the market low for $SPY, which will have an indirect impact on BTC in the short term, likely leading to the yearly low. However, it is equally important to see how VIX is changing over time, if it is decreasing or increasing, as that indicates increasing or decreasing fear. Low volatility allows high leverage without risk or rest. Occasionally, markets do rise with high VIX.
As VIX is unusually high, in the forties, we can be confident that a downtrend for the S&P 500 is imminent.
  • RSI (Relative Strength Index): The most important technical indicator, useful for determining highs and lows when time symmetry is not availing itself. Sometimes analysis of RSI can conflict in different time frames, easiest way to use it is when it is at extremes – either under 30 or over 70. Extremes can be used for filtering highs or lows based on time-and-price window calculations. Highly instructive as to major corrective clues and indicative of continued directional movement. Must determine if longer-term RSI values find support at same values as before. It is currently at 73.56.
  • Secondly, RSI may be used as a high or low filter, to observe the level that short-term RSI reaches in counter-trend corrections. Repetitions based on market movements based on RSI determine how long a trade should be held onto. Once a short term RSI reaches an extreme and stay there, the other RSI’s should gradually reach the same extremes. Once all RSI’s are at extreme highs, a trend confirmation should occur and RSI’s should drop to their midpoint.

Trend Definition Analysis of Bitcoin

Trend definition is highly powerful, cannot be understated. Knowledge of trend logic is enough to be a profitable trader, yet defining a trend is an arduous process. Multiple trends coexist across multiple time frames and across multiple market sectors. Like time structure, it makes the underlying price of the instrument irrelevant. Trend definitions cannot determine the validity of newly formed discretes. Trend becomes apparent when trades based in counter-trend inflection points continue to fail.
Downtrends are defined as an instrument making lower lows and lower highs that are recurrent, additive, qualified swing setups. Downtrends for all instruments are similar, except forex. They are fast and complete much quicker than uptrends. An average downtrend is 18 months, something which we will return to. An uptrend inception occurs when an instrument reaches a point where it fails to make a new low, then that low will be tested. After that, the instrument will either have a deep range retracement or it may take out the low slightly, resulting in a double-bottom. A swing must eventually form.
A simple way to roughly determine trend is to attempt to draw a line from three tops going upwards (uptrend) or a line from three bottoms going downwards (downtrend). It is not possible to correctly draw a downtrend line on the BTC chart, but it is possible to correctly draw an uptrend – indicating that the overall trend is downwards. The only mitigating factor is the impending stock market crash.

Time Symmetry Analysis of Bitcoin

Time is the movement from the past through the present into the future. It is a measurement in quantified intervals. In many ways, our perception of it is a human construct. It is more powerful than price as time may be utilized for a trade regardless of the market inflection point’s price. Were it possible to perfectly understand time, price would be totally irrelevant due to the predictive certainty time affords. Time structure is easier to learn than price, but much more difficult to apply with any accuracy. It is the hardest aspect of trading to learn, but also the most rewarding.
Humans do not have the ability to recognize every time window, however the ability to define market inflection points in terms of time is the single most powerful trading edge. Regardless, price should not be abandoned for time alone. Time structure analysis It is inherently flawed, as such the markets have a fail-safe, which is Price Structure. Even though Time is much more powerful, Price Structure should never be completely ignored. Time is the qualifier for Price and vice versa. Time can fail by tricking traders into counter-trend trading.
Time is a predestined trade quantifier, a filter to slow trades down, as it allows a trader to specifically focus on specific time windows and rest at others. It allows for quantitative measurements to reach deterministic values and is the primary qualifier for trends. Time structure should be utilized before price structure, and it is the primary trade criterion which requires support from price. We can see price structure on a chart, as areas of mathematical support or resistance, but we cannot see time structure.
Time may be used to tell us an exact point in the future where the market will inflect, after Price Theory has been fulfilled. In the present, price objectives based on price theory added to possible future times for market inflection points give us the exact time of market inflection points and price.
Time Structure is repetitions of time or inherent cycles of time, occurring in a methodical way to provide time windows which may be utilized for inflection points. They are not easily recognized and not easily defined by a price chart as measuring and observing time is very exact. Time structure is not a science, yet it does require precise measurements. Nothing is certain or definite. The critical question must be if a particular approach to time structure is currently lucrative or not.
We will measure it in intervals of 180 bars. Our goal is to determine time windows, when the market will react and when we should pay the most attention. By using time repetitions, the fact that market inflection points occurred at some point in the past and should, therefore, reoccur at some point in the future, we should obtain confidence as to when SPY will reach a market inflection point. Time repetitions are essentially the market’s memory. However, simply measuring the time between two points then trying to extrapolate into the future does not work. Measuring time is not the same as defining time repetitions. We will evaluate past sessions for market inflection points, whether discretes, qualified swings, or intra-range. Then records the times that the market has made highs or lows in a comparable time period to the future one seeks to trade in.
What follows is a time Histogram – A grouping of times which appear close together, then segregated based on that closeness. Time is aligned into combined histogram of repetitions and cycles, however cycles are irrelevant on a daily basis. If trading on an hourly basis, do not use hours.
  • Yearly Lows (last seven years): 1/1/13, 4/10/14, 1/15/15, 1/17/16, 1/1/17, 12/15/18, 2/6/19
  • Monthly Mode: 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 4, 12
  • Daily Mode: 1, 1, 6, 10, 15, 15, 17
  • Monthly Lows (for the last year): 3/12/20 (10:00pm), 2/28/20 (7:09am), 1/2/20 (8:09pm), 12/18/19 (8:00am), 11/25/19 (1:00am), 10/24/19 (2:59am), 9/30/19 (2:59am), 8/29,19 (4:00am), 7/17/19 (7:59am), 6/4/19 (5:59pm), 5/1/19 (12:00am), 4/1/19 (12:00am)
  • Daily Lows Mode for those Months: 1, 1, 2, 4, 12, 17, 18, 24, 25, 28, 29, 30
  • Hourly Lows Mode for those Months (Military time): 0100, 0200, 0200, 0400, 0700, 0700, 0800, 1200, 1200, 1700, 2000, 2200
  • Minute Lows Mode for those Months: 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 09, 09, 59, 59, 59, 59
  • Day of the Week Lows (last twenty-six weeks):
Weighted Times are repetitions which appears multiple times within the same list, observed and accentuated once divided into relevant sections of the histogram. They are important in the presently defined trading time period and are similar to a mathematical mode with respect to a series. Phased times are essentially periodical patterns in histograms, though they do not guarantee inflection points
Evaluating the yearly lows, we see that BTC tends to have its lows primarily at the beginning of every year, with a possibility of it being at the end of the year. Following the same methodology, we get the middle of the month as the likeliest day. However, evaluating the monthly lows for the past year, the beginning and end of the month are more likely for lows.
Therefore, we have two primary dates from our histogram.
1/1/21, 1/15/21, and 1/29/21
2:00am, 8:00am, 12:00pm, or 10:00pm
In fact, the high for this year was February the 14th, only thirty days off from our histogram calculations.
The 8.6-Year Armstrong-Princeton Global Economic Confidence model states that 2.15 year intervals occur between corrections, relevant highs and lows. 2.15 years from the all-time peak discrete is February 9, 2020 – a reasonably accurate depiction of the low for this year (which was on 3/12/20). (Taking only the Armstrong model into account, the next high should be Saturday, April 23, 2022). Therefore, the Armstrong model indicates that we have actually bottomed out for the year!
Bear markets cannot exist in perpetuity whereas bull markets can. Bear markets will eventually have price objectives of zero, whereas bull markets can increase to infinity. It can occur for individual market instruments, but not markets as a whole. Since bull markets are defined by low volatility, they also last longer. Once a bull market is indicated, the trader can remain in a long position until a new high is reached, then switch to shorts. The average bear market is eighteen months long, giving us a date of August 19th, 2021 for the end of this bear market – roughly speaking. They cannot be shorter than fifteen months for a central-bank controlled market, which does not apply to Bitcoin. (Otherwise, it would continue until Sunday, September 12, 2021.) However, we should expect Bitcoin to experience its’ exponential growth after the stock market re-enters a bull market.
Terry Laundy’s T-Theory implemented by measuring the time of an indicator from peak to trough, then using that to define a future time window. It is similar to an head-and-shoulders pattern in that it is the process of forming the right side from a synthetic technical indicator. If the indicator is making continued lows, then time is recalculated for defining the right side of the T. The date of the market inflection point may be a price or indicator inflection date, so it is not always exactly useful. It is better to make us aware of possible market inflection points, clustered with other data. It gives us an RSI low of May, 9th 2020.
The Bradley Cycle is coupled with volatility allows start dates for campaigns or put options as insurance in portfolios for stocks. However, it is also useful for predicting market moves instead of terminal dates for discretes. Using dates which correspond to discretes, we can see how those dates correspond with changes in VIX.
Therefore, our timeline looks like:
  • 2/14/20 – yearly high ($10372 USD)
  • 3/12/20 – yearly low thus far ($3858 USD)
  • 5/9/20 – T-Theory true yearly low (BTC between 4863 and 3569)
  • 5/26/20 – hashrate difficulty halvening
  • 11/14/20 – stock market low
  • 1/15/21 – yearly low for BTC, around $8528
  • 8/19/21 – end of stock bear market
  • 11/26/21 – eighteen months from halvening, average peak from halvenings (BTC begins rising from $3000 area to above $23,312)
  • 4/23/22 – all-time high
Taken from my blog: http://aliamin.info/2020/
submitted by aibnsamin1 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Forbes solves the "Impossible Triangle" problem

Forbes solves the

https://preview.redd.it/crbhgda6c0651.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=522357d06b1f3c893f996dbd3b79aab5461e4dfb
Blockchain has been described as an omnipotent technology since its inception. It is expected to affect all walks of life and even reshape production relations. However, blockchain itself has a technical bottleneck called "Impossible Triangle", which is still far from its potential. The so-called "Impossible Triangle" of blockchain, also known as the "ternary paradox", means that no matter which consensus mechanism is adopted by blockchain network to determine the generation mode of new blocks, it cannot take into account the three requirements of throughput, security and decentralization at the same time.
For example, bitcoin can theoretically guarantee security and decentralization on the basis of large amount of computing power. But the disadvantage is that it is difficult to improve throughput, slow speed and high cost. EOS, which is said to take improving throughput as an important technological breakthrough, adopts the consensus mechanism of dpos, greatly reducing the number of nodes and being criticized for sacrificing the essence of decentralization. Although the "king of ten thousand chains" Ethereum has the partition technology as the solution of capacity expansion, it can't fall down because of the technical difficulty.
Forbes uses "zero knowledge proof" technology, greatly improves throughput without sacrificing decentralization, and solves the "Impossible Triangle" problem that has plagued the blockchain industry for many years.
1、 Zero knowledge proof
First, we introduce the concept of lower zero knowledge proof. Zero knowledge proof, as the name implies, is not only to fully prove that they are the legitimate owners of certain rights and interests, but also not to disclose relevant information - that is to say, the "knowledge" to the outside world is "zero". The certifier proves to the verifier and makes him believe that he knows or has some information, but the proving process cannot disclose any information to the verifier.
Case 1: a wants to prove to B that he has the key of a room. Suppose that the room can only open the lock with the key, and no other method can open it. There are two ways:
① A shows the key to B, and B uses the key to open the lock of the room, so as to prove that a has the correct key of the room.
② B. make sure that there is an object in the room. A opens the door of the room with his own key, and then takes the object out and shows it to B, so as to prove that he does have the key of the room.
The second method belongs to zero knowledge proof. Its advantage is that in the whole process of proof, B can never see the appearance of the key, thus avoiding the leakage of the key.
Case 2: there is a circular corridor. The exit and the entrance are the same, but there is a door that can only be opened with a key somewhere in the middle of the corridor. A needs to prove to B that he has the key to the door. With zero knowledge proof, B looks at a entering the corridor from the entrance and then going out of the corridor from the exit. At this time, B does not get any information about the key, but it can completely prove that a has the key.
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A large number of facts prove that zero knowledge proof is very useful in cryptography. If zero knowledge proof can be used for verification, many problems will be solved effectively. So how does Forbes use zero knowledge proof to improve TPS?
2、 Second floor expansion
It is difficult to solve the "Impossible Triangle" problem if you directly modify the blockchain architecture itself to improve the throughput. After all, the more nodes, it is very difficult to improve the TPS technology on the premise of decentralization. But Forbes thought of the "curve saving the nation" scheme, that is, without changing the blockchain itself, to improve the TPS by setting the second layer architecture.
Here is a case in life:
If the Forbes public chain is regarded as a real-life bank, and the transfer operation is carried out on the Forbes public chain, it is like handling the transfer business in the bank's counter, but the difference is that the bank is centralized and the blockchain is decentralized.
In the case of few people, it's easy for users to handle the transfer business in the bank, but once there are more people, it's easy to form a long queue, which makes the users in the back have a long wait. Blockchain is like a bank. When there are more people in the transfer queue, there will be a block. So to improve the throughput of blockchain is how to improve the speed of bank transfer business.
But the bank is so big. There are so many bank staff (you can compare the bank staff to the nodes of the blockchain). It is very difficult for the bank to improve the speed of handling the transfer business. This makes the people behind the line angry, but they have no choice.
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Finally, one of the people at the back of the line couldn't bear to wait. He stood up and said, "we can't wait. We have to find ways to improve our efficiency." And they said to him, you are not a banker. What can you do. So, the man said confidently, "let's see my operation and cooperate with me.".
Only the person pulls out a book for bookkeeping, starts from the fifth person in line, records the balance of each person's account after transfer in detail, and then asks each person to confirm that the note book is authorized by hand print. Then after the last person records, he gets an account book for recording the final balance of the owner's account. Although there is no specific transfer record in this account book, it is recorded accurately Record the balance of each person's transfer. Although some people transfer to each other many times, no matter how many times they transfer, people only care about the balance of their final account
After that person's statistics, just in time, the fourth person in line finished the transfer at the bank. Then he walked into the bank with this account book and said that this was the account balance after the fifth person started the transfer of all the people. The bank only needs to change the account balance of these people in the system.
At the first sight of the bank, it's not easy. The staff swiped it and changed all the balances of these accounts at once, so that the bank's handling of transfer business increased by several hundred times.
This is how Forbes is implemented. By setting the second level node, which is called relay, let relay collect the account transfer information of queued users and verify the user's signature. After calculation, integrate the token balance information of the final address into the Merkel tree and submit it to the chain, and then process it at one time.
We call this method of improving the block chain TPS "the second layer expansion".
At first glance, this scheme is perfect, but there are various problems in practical operation. For example:
  1. How can the bank believe that the person with the final account book actually counts the transfer requests of all the queuers?
  2. What if this person, because of personal grudges, intentionally misses the statistics for those who don't like it?
  3. What if this person secretly changes the account balance on the way to the bank?
At this time, zero knowledge proof will be of great use.

https://preview.redd.it/25p5vrb9d0651.png?width=599&format=png&auto=webp&s=9d07cb226d1f6f318703c76c5f4d9000b370145a
3、 Zero knowledge proof + second layer expansion + smart contract
To solve the above problems is actually to solve the problem of trust. The bank is not stupid. It's OK to let the bank send its own staff. Each staff sent by the bank will issue a "work permit" and an open box with a lock before departure. When you count transfers for people in line, the account book is safe, because people will supervise him. When you count the last person, the staff will put the account book into a locked box and close it. In this way, on the way to the bank, the staff can't do evil and modify the account data. After arriving at the bank, the bank only recognizes the "work permit" and confirms that it is its own staff. Without opening the locked box, it can be determined that this person is indeed trustworthy.
It can be seen that in the whole process, the bank gets ZERO account information, but believes that the transfer data counted by this person is safe and reliable, which is zero knowledge proof.
The principle of Forbes technology is exactly the same. The main chain will use the zero knowledge circuit to generate the certificate called proof. When relay counts the transfer information of users, it will finally package and submit the general ledger Merkel tree, and use proof to encrypt. After the main chain sees the encrypted package, it will use proof to decrypt, perform the calculation of modifying the address token balance, and then broadcast to the whole node.
But there is still a problem that hasn't been solved, that is, what should staff do if they intentionally miss the bookkeeping of people who don't look good? Or the staff ask for a tip from the user. If they don't tip, they don't charge. What should we do?
In fact, it's also easy to handle. People who miss the account or are asked for tips will definitely complain to the bank angrily. After the bank checks, they only need to deduct the balance of the staff's account.
Here Forbes will arrange smart contracts on the main chain, and require the added relay to mortgage a sufficient number of GFS on the main chain. If relay misses the user transfer request or intentionally increases the transfer fee, the main chain will deduct the pledge GFS of relay through the smart contract to compensate the user's loss.
See here, congratulations on finally understanding the technical solution of Forbes to improve TPS. Under the support of huge distributed mining pool, Forbes not only has a large number of nodes to provide ultra-high security and decentralization, but also uses zero knowledge proof + second expansion + smart contract to easily increase TPS to more than 10000, which solves the "Impossible Triangle" problem of blockchain.
I think you must have noticed the details of the pledge of GFS by relay. If smart people don't explain, they can predict the future value of GFS from the details.
submitted by forbeschain to u/forbeschain [link] [comments]

Bitcoin options are breaking records, and exchanges are competing for this segment. We will tell you what these tools are and how they work

Bitcoin options are breaking records, and exchanges are competing for this segment. We will tell you what these tools are and how they work
Bitcoin options are breaking records, and exchanges are competing for this segment. We will tell you what these tools are and how they work
The cryptocurrency market is constantly evolving, integrating with the traditional and inheriting complex financial products such as futures and options.
Some types of fixed-term contracts are already firmly established in the bitcoin industry. This is noticeable by the activity of traders on the CME.
However, the situation with options is somewhat different. These derivatives are difficult to understand among ordinary market participants and are not yet so popular.
Nevertheless, there is a demand for such tools, as evidenced by the growth dynamics of this market segment and interest from platforms such as Binance and Bitfinex.
Bitcoin options have already been offered on CME, LedgerX and Bakkt, which are regulated and oriented primarily on whales. Among the unregulated sites, the leader is Deribit, followed by FTX and OKEx.
ForkLog magazine figured out what options are and what types of options are. We will talk about the features of these tools and the current state of affairs in the segment. In this article you will also find comments by leading market experts on the role of options in the industry.

What are options and how do they work?

An option is a financial contract concluded between two parties — the holder and the seller. The first receives the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell a certain amount of the underlying asset at the strike price (strike price) on a specific date (expiration date).
The seller undertakes to buy or sell the asset at the request of the option holder. The latter pays the seller at the time of purchase of the contract a certain amount of money — the so-called premium.
The rights and obligations of the holder and seller differ significantly. The former has the right to choose whether to exercise the option or not. The seller is obliged to fulfill the terms of the contract at the request of the holder.
Parameters such as the type of underlying asset, expiration date, strike price are fixed at the time of issue of the contract, after which they cannot be changed.
Like futures, options are derivative financial instruments and derivatives. This means that they can be based on various underlying assets (BA) — stocks, indices or cryptocurrencies.
Like the options already existing in traditional finance for all major assets, there are contracts based on BTC and ETH on the cryptocurrency market. They are very interesting financial products“, said Su Zhu, head of Three Arrows Capital, in a conversation with ForkLog.
Options are used both for hedging risks and for speculative trading. For example, a speculator confident in the growth of the underlying asset buys a call option. If the BA price rises above the strike, the trader can use his contract to buy a discounted asset.
Derivatives such as options allow users to hedge risks and generate revenue. Derivatives play a key role in the traditional financial market. These tools are needed so that the cryptocurrency market continues to grow and develop, being filled with new participants“, said Aaron Gong, vice president of Binance Futures.

Practical use of options

Consider the simplest example of options hedging. Suppose there is a company manufacturing tomato paste, sauces and ketchups. There is a farmer supplying this company with tomatoes. He acts in conditions of fierce competition, close to perfect.
It is extremely important for a company to buy raw materials cheaper to minimize production costs and remain profitable. The farmer, in turn, hopes for a long-term cooperation with the company so as not to lose a major client.
The company offers the farmer an option, assuming the right to buy 10 tons of tomatoes of the next year’s crop at the current price — say, $1,000 per ton. To exercise this right, the company pays the farmer an option premium of 3% of the total transaction amount of $10,000, that is, $300.
The farmer will have to, at the request of the company, sell the appropriate quantity of goods at the above price and at a specified time.
A year later, the crop was high, which led to a decrease in the market value of tomatoes to $800 per ton. The company decides not to exercise its right to purchase raw materials for $10,000, as other farmers can buy the same 10 tons of tomatoes for only $8,000.
Thus, having lost only $300 as a premium on an option, the company is insured against price risk. Buying raw materials at a significantly lower market price is more than worth the price of the option contract.
Let’s imagine another scenario: the crop turned out to be unimportant and the price of scarce tomatoes jumped to $1200 per ton. Then the company will certainly take advantage of the right to purchase tomatoes for $1000. Thus, the result is any case.
It is easy to guess that the options can be used by miners to hedge the risks of adverse changes in the price of the extracted asset. For example, expecting a decrease in the price of BTC, miners can use options that give them the right to sell cryptocurrency in the future at a price higher than the breakeven point.
Miners are already very active in options markets. And, probably, they will remain active“, Su Zhu said.
Su Zhu is confident that in the long term, options will make the cryptocurrency spot market more liquid and attractive to a wide range of participants. He added that the growing popularity of such contracts among miners could significantly reduce sales pressure.
Options give miners the opportunity to fix the price of coins mined in the future. Miners can better manage their production costs and protect themselves from market volatility“, said Aaron Gong, expressing confidence that the popularity of options will continue to grow.
According to him, such tools open up new opportunities and may be of interest to speculators, funds and long-term cryptocurrency holders.
“Institutional investors are also showing growing interest in options and other derivatives. Last week it was reported that the famous Wall Street trader Paul Tudor Jones allocated a few percent from his Tudor BVI fund for bitcoin futures. This is a positive signal, which means that more and more institutions are interested in the cryptocurrency market“, Gong added.
However, option strategies are not suitable for every market participant — effective work with these tools requires certain experience, Co-founder of CoinIndex.agency Julia Sporysh is sure:
Of course, in order to use this effectively, the miner must have an experienced trader (option strategies are some of the most difficult on the market) — or they will have to unite and work through specialized trading companies. This market exists, although it is not for the general public.
Also, according to her, options may be of interest to funds and retail traders who have gained a hand in speculative trading.
Options are an independent and good speculative tool. And if you have positions in futures or in the spot market, it’s just the time to explore new opportunities“, added Yulia Sporysh.

Types of options

There are two main types of options — option call and option put. The first gives the right to the contract holder to purchase a certain amount of the underlying asset from the seller (they also say — the inscription) at the strike price on a certain date in the future. This type of option was used in the tomato example.
The put option, on the contrary, gives the buyer of the contract the right to sell the underlying asset at a fixed price. The latter may be higher than the market at the time of expiration, which is beneficial to the trader.
Market participants use the call, predicting an increase in the price of BA, and put — expecting it to decline.
More complex strategies use combinations of these two types of contracts.
There is also the term “covered option”. For example, an option call is covered if the seller has the amount of the underlying asset corresponding to the terms of the contract.
Options may also differ in the style of execution — American or European.
European-style options require the holder to execute the contract exclusively on the expiration date. Such options, in particular, are presented at CME and Bakkt.
American style implies the possibility of contract execution at any time prior to the date of expiration. Options of both styles are traded all over the world, their names have no relation to geographic location.
There are less standardized, exotic options. However, the popularity and importance of such instruments in the financial market is not so great.
Parameters and conditions for trading certain options are described in the specifications for them, which indicate the expiration date, strike price and other elements of the contract.

Premium, strike price and cash option

The option premium is the amount of money paid by the buyer to the seller. The premium is equal to the value of the contract and, in fact, represents a fee for the risk of adverse changes in the value of the underlying asset.
The option premium is formed by two components:
Intrinsic value — the amount that the buyer would receive if the contract were currently executed. It depends on the ratio of the price of the underlying asset and the strike.
Time value — depends on the time remaining until expiration. Usually, the less time it takes to execute a contract, the lower the premium.
As a rule, high price volatility contributes to premium growth, and vice versa. A deal with a close strike price in relation to the current one has much greater chances of closing in profit and, therefore, the premium for such an option will be relatively high.
The strike price is the price fixed in the option at which the buyer of the call option can buy (or sell, if this is a put option) the underlying asset. In turn, the seller of the contract is obliged to sell or buy BA.
Money is an indicator of the ability to receive funds from the exercise of the right to exercise a derivative. In the context of options, cash can be calculated by comparing the spot price of the BA and the strike price of the option. Thus, three options are possible:
• “in the money” option: in the case of a call — if the spot price is higher than the strike (then the intrinsic value of the contract is positive), in the case of a put, on the contrary, if the BA price is lower than the strike;
• option “on money” (or “with one’s own”) — equal strike to current stock quotes, intrinsic value equal to 0;
• the option “out of money” (“without money”) — the exercise of the option is not economically feasible; in such a situation, the current price of the underlying asset is lower than the strike price of the call option or, conversely, the spot price of the BA is higher than the strike price in the case of a put.

Option strategies

There are many option trading strategies. Four basic approaches can be distinguished.
Long call — buying a call option, the investor expects an increase in the price of the underlying asset above the strike on the expiration date of the contract. Then he will be able to buy an asset at a discount to the market price and thus earn on the difference. If the price drops below the strike, the buyer risks only the premium paid for the option.
Long put — is a kind of alternative to a short position in the spot market. The buyer of the put option hopes to make money, assuming that the price of the BA falls below the strike at the time of expiration. In this scenario, the investor may sell the asset at a higher price than the market price.
Also, through a put option, an investor can limit the risk of a fall in the price of an asset that has a long position open. According to Su Zhu, miners may use the “protective put” strategy, in whose activity a substantial and prolonged drop in the price of mined cryptocurrency is undesirable. Through such tools, miners can provide profitable or even break-even activity.
Short call — the investor acts as the seller of the contract, counting on a decrease in the price of BA below the strike on the date of expiration. However, the higher the price of the asset, the more losses the inscription bears. Thus, the risk of the seller of the contract is unlimited, and the profit potential is limited by the premium on the sale of the call.
Short put — the seller of such an option expects a premium on it, being firmly convinced that the price of the BA will be higher than the strike.
Combinations of these basic strategies may underlie more sophisticated options trading approaches, such as:
protective put — purchase of a put option for an available asset;
covered (secured) call — an investor sells a call option to an existing BA or which will be acquired simultaneously with the sale of the option; the strategy reduces the risk of owning an asset, since a fall in its price is partially offset by a premium;
straddle — a kind of bet on volatility, which implies the purchase of a call and put option on the same asset with the same expiration date and the same strike price;
strangle — almost the same as straddle, differs only in different strike prices.

Conclusions

Options are complex financial instruments, their mechanism of work is unlikely to be mastered immediately by most novice traders. Nevertheless, these derivatives may seem interesting to experienced market participants and, in particular, to miners.
The following advantages and disadvantages of options can be distinguished. Of the advantages of these contracts, we note:
- flexibility of use in speculative trading;
- the ability to use many combinations and trading strategies;
- a good tool for hedging risks;
- the ability to use in any trend — upward, downward, sideways.
Disadvantages:
- the difficulty of understanding the mechanism of work, especially for novice market participants;
- asymmetric conditions and, accordingly, risks for the buyer and seller;
- the complexity of trading strategies;
- the volatility of an option premium, which depends on the proximity of the expiration date and price dynamics in the spot market;
- low liquidity.
Different industry players have different cryptocurrency options. Some consider them promising tools useful for miners, funds, retail traders and the market as a whole. Others are convinced that such derivatives are archaism.
Nevertheless, options are gradually taking root in the cryptocurrency market. This is evident in the dynamics of trading volume and open interest. In addition, more and more exchanges are trying to add support for these contracts, which contributes to increased competition and further development of the industry.
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submitted by Smart_Smell to Robopay [link] [comments]

04-22 15:45 - 'Today's video Bitcoin News 2020 will cover five different topics. We will look into a hedge fund that is using Mind-Bending math to calculate buy/sell signals for Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrencies. They have great succes...' by /u/Lumin8_Crypto removed from /r/Bitcoin within 51-61min

'''
Today's video Bitcoin News 2020 will cover five different topics. We will look into a hedge fund that is using Mind-Bending math to calculate buy/sell signals for Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrencies. They have great success with Stocks and other assets. Analyst predicts Ethereum 2.0 staking will trigger a bull run. This article identifies some fascinating reasons for the bull run. New law threatens Puerto Rico’s status as a crypto tax haven. Will people continue to move to Puerto Rico to shelter their Capital Gains tax? Ripple Sues YouTube. Who will wind the Ripple Vrs YouTube lawsuit? Mining Difficulty Might Reach All-Time High Before Bitcoin Halving. The Bitcoin hash rate is on the increase. Where will the hash rate go from here? Do not miss a moment of this absorbing video.
Watch the video:
[[link]2
'''
Context Link
Go1dfish undelete link
unreddit undelete link
Author: Lumin8_Crypto
1: yout*.be/Nazd*a*yb** 2: y**tu*be/Na*d2aO*b*0]^^1
Unknown links are censored to prevent spreading illicit content.
submitted by removalbot to removalbot [link] [comments]

Gobler's Fantasy Consistency Rankings Week 8

WEEK 8 CONSISTENCY RANKINGS HERE
Hey all. I posted these last week, but didn't quite get the traction I had hoped for due to difficulties with the automod.
In short, this tweet from last season regarding the consistency between Tyreek Hill and Anotonio Brown inspired me to create data for player consistency. For those too lazy to click the link, Tyreek Hill and Antonio Brown were both averaging around 21.5 points in PPR leagues through week 13 of the 2018 season. However, how those two players went about getting those points differed greatly. Antonio Brown was fairly consistent throughout the season. With his lowest score being 14.6 and his highest being 31.4, AB’s line graph is fairly flat and consistent - at least in comparison to Reek’s. Tyreek Hill’s graph, on the other hand, is all over the place. As the top twitter comment suggests, “Tyreek Hill [was] Bitcoin.” Hill would explode for monster games some weeks, but then score in the single digits in others.
This got me thinking. Why isn’t there more emphasis on consistency? Every year before drafts begin, every other comment is about “minimizing risk” by drafting safe and consistent players. We are taught to value the James Whites of the world, but then blow large quantities of our FAAB on players like Will Fuller.
Using my 9th grade math skills, we can better objectively view players through consistency using standard deviation. With this information, we can gather a better understanding of which players are truly consistent, as opposed to simply looking at season averages. Furthermore, we can also use this data to help us make more accurate predictions in the future.

Standard Deviation (SD)
Standard deviation is a measurement of variation or dispersion in a given set of data. The smaller the standard deviation, the closer the data is to the mean (average).
For example: Let’s say that Lamar Jackson has an SD of 6.97 fantasy points, and Jameis Winston has an SD of 7.74 fantasy points. Clearly, 6.97 is less than 7.74. From this, we can say that Lamar’s performances have been closer to his expected value (average) more so than Jameis’s performances have been to his expected value.
68-95-99.7 Rule
In a normally distributed set of data, we can expect that 68.26% of values are plus or minus one standard deviation from the mean, 95.44% of values are within plus or minus 2 SD, and 99.7% are within plus or minus 3 SD.
Using Lamar as an example again, we would say that about 68% of Lamar’s performances are between ±1 SD from his average of 25.1 fantasy points. Since Lamar’s SD is 6.97, we can say that 68% of his games are between 18.13 (25.1 - 6.97) and 32.07 (25.1 + 6.97) points.

Disclaimer: I did not include ± 3 SD from mean since ± 2SD covers almost all data with 95.44%. Also, I don’t think you need me to tell you that there is a 99.7% chance that a player like Lamar Jackson’s score falls between something like 46.0 and 10.0 points.
Coefficient of Variation (CV)
If you’re only going to take one thing from this post, this is the most important part. Coefficient of variation is a measurement of consistency. It’s simply the players Standard deviation divided by their respective average. It’s a good way to compare results between multiple sets of data, like fantasy football players. This just shows us the relationship between a player’s SD and their average. More specifically, it shows us how close players are to their overall season average, which is considered their “expected value.”
THE SMALLER THE NUMBER = MORE CONSISTENT. For example: Let’s say Christian McCaffrey has a CV of .450 and David Johnson has a CV of .526. From this, we can say that CMC has been more consistent and is more often performing closer to his season average on a weekly basis than DJ is.

Things to Note
Q: What scoring format is this for?
A: .5 PPR scoring and standard scoring for QBs, D/STs, and Ks.

Q: Why is player ________ not on this list?
A: To provide a more accurate depiction of each players respective seasons, I first sort the players by average points/game. Then, I only include the top 20 scoring players for QBs, top 40 for RBs, top 40 for WRs, top 20 for TEs, and top 20 for Ks. But because I’m a sweetheart, and D/STs are more about matchups, I include all 32 D/STs. If your player isn’t on the table, then they didn’t make the cut this week. I also took the liberty of removing players that are on IR for the remainder of the fantasy season, haven't played most games (with the exclusion of Brees), or aren't on teams anymore @AB84.

Q: What formula for standard deviation did you use?
A: Credit to u/YoureNotMom. On last weeks post, this Bachelor of mathematics educated me on why using the population standard deviation was not as statistically valid as using the sample standard deviation. In his words: "We don't know each QB's true perimeters. Imagine we're in the Matrix and everyone's every characteristic is quantified. Two such parameters would be your mean and standard deviation for both passing yards and passing TDs (for 4 total). As a computerized NPC, you will always produce outcomes derived from those parameters. You could then calculate the mean and standard deviation of fantasy points based on the yards and TD figures.
However, we're not in the matrix, so we don't know a QBs "true" mean and SD for his fantasy points. We only have this year's sample to work backwards with and to infer their "true" values from. So if you rerun these numbers with the sample instead of the population button depressed, you'll get more-valid statistics."

Q: This all seems like a lot of data, no?
A: It is and it isn’t. I wanted to provide an objective and somewhat more holistic perspective. That’s why I included everything that I did. For those who just want a quick glance at the consistency part, look at the highlighted column at the end of the table for coefficient of variation.

Q: Since the coefficient of variation is mean divided by the standard deviation, then why for D/STs with negative averages is their CV not negative? A negative divided by a positive is negative.
A: Good question. You are 100% correct. A negative divided by a positive is most definitely a negative. However, if the CV are entered as negatives, and then I sort from lowest to highest, the negative numbers would be incorrectly listed at the top of the consistency column.

Q: Where did you get all the stats from?
A: I used ESPN standard scoring for the D/ST. For everything else, I used .5 PPR scoring data from fantasydata.com

Q: Why did you choose purple and yellow for the table?
A: Kirktober is over, and he is nearly leading the league in Quarterback Rating. If November is anything like October, a certain internet holiday that takes place the entirety of November might be hard for me to maintain.
submitted by -Gobler- to fantasyfootball [link] [comments]

Revenue mis-match: I’ve been mining SHA-256 on hashflare for about a week (11TH/S) but the payout does not match the revenue forecast at all (about half of predicted). Accounting for maintenance etc still doesn’t match. Is this normal?

Revenue mis-match: I’ve been mining SHA-256 on hashflare for about a week (11TH/S) but the payout does not match the revenue forecast at all (about half of predicted). Accounting for maintenance etc still doesn’t match. Is this normal? submitted by moldy_salad to hashflare [link] [comments]

bit_by_bit's mining-cost analysis is wrong - here's mine

bit_by_bit publishes a daily mining-cost-per-coin watch.
Though his work is thorough and commendable, it is unfortunately incorrect, and his conclusions naive.
I'm sure he has misled people on this board, so I'm here to set the record straight.
Roughly using bit_by_bit's assumptions:
achieves these costs per coin:
Miner Cost per coin
Cointerra TerraMiner IV $1985
KnC Neptune $2030
Bitfury BF3500 $1650
Bitmain Aintminer s3 $866
Bitmain Aintminer s2 $1305
Average $1570

However,

Given those two huge, highly variable (and unpredictable) factors, trying to work out a cost-per-coin is ... more-or-less impossible.
It's simply enough to assume that mining is extremely unprofitable at the moment and (probably) a very poor investment.
Here are some examples of variability:
Cointerra TerraMiner IV cost per coin
0% difficulty increase $759
20% difficulty increase $2640
15% difficulty, but starting at 30bn difficulty $3265

How are these numbers so different from bit_by_bits?

His calculations do not factor in an exponential difficulty increase. Instead, he says (in his maths) : "if the bitcoin network were composed of the miners here, and no extra miners are added/removed (i.e. difficulty remains the same) what would those miners (on average) achieve as a cost per coin over six months."

The problem with these numbers is

  1. The percentage of miners he uses to compose the network is unknowable, and as you see above, miner performance varies greatly. I'm quite sure that huge operations custom manufacture their machines and never sell them. Their performance is unknown. (an unknowable unknown)
  2. The makeup of the mining network in the future is unknowable, and difficulty will undoubtedly increase, but we can't know by how much. It has previously plateaued. Will it do the same? nobody knows.
  3. They assume the very latest miners, shipped immediately. Historically, new miners are not shipped on time. It's been suggested that the manufacturers keep them and do highly profitable day-zero mining with them.
Also, to suggest that it is possible to predict market movements (and depth) is naive as it asserts that demand is constant, and that supply is the major, or key, factor. This is highly unlikely to be the case.

Let's talk about mining's effect on bitcoin price or, first should we talk about the effect of the price of bitcoin on the mining industry?

The two are intimately linked chicken-and-egg in a feedback loop.
For a manufacturer to decide to make a rig, they need to design chips, get industry contacts, produce things (in china), make sure they work, then ship. They also need to get orders and decide if they are able to get the whole project in time for market.
These projects are multi-month/year, and I've heard success is largely decided by who you know in china (china's pretty busy already).
There is some kind of lag. Investors also pre-order, and must take a wild guess at future conditions with no guarantee whatsoever.
At times like now, where mining is so unprofitable, which miners are actually selling coins (at a loss)?
Large operations have large overheads, but to sell now, when the price might rise by 10x again would be idiotic.
So, really this "supply" aspect of the supply-demand equation is very difficult to get a decent hold on, though I would love somebody to attempt it as a PHD. The blockchain should provide some answers.
The other side of it (what miners will be produced) is also difficult to know. It could be that right now (with an unprofitable industry, and miners actually being quite close to desktop PC chip-size - i.e. as fast as humans can make them) no miners are in the pipe-line. This could (in crazy theory) lead to a zero difficulty increase for the lucky new owners of the above rigs. In that case, bit_by_bit's numbers would be spot on.
Unfortunately, it's absolutely unknowable.

So... why do people buy miners now?

Quite simply, getting your head around an exponential anything is hard. The exponential difficulty increase is a motherfucker. But it's good for bitcoin (it protects our network from meddlers).
Also, you could gamble that mining difficulty has to slow down... surely...

So...what?

In my experience, looking at price charts is far more informative about future market movements. But, whilst I've got the microphone, I would remind newbies not to trade their coins.

Show your workings!

Using this mining profitability calculator and inputing the "profitability decline per year" from this tool.
I'll work through Cointerra TerraMiner IV as an example.
meh meh
Difficulty 18,736,441,558
ghash 2000
Elec $0.15 (varies quite a bit from country-to country, like 0.7 canada to 0.2 UK?)
power 2200
time frame 6 months
hardware cost $6000
price per BTC 600
profitability decline 0.00882406
I got these numbers off bit_by_bit. I don't care about the details. My argument is that it's not an answerable question.
Result:
meh meh
Electricity cost $1446
Total cost $7446
Income 2553
Coins 2252/600 = 3.75 BTC
$/BTC 7446/3.75 = $1985
Please, if I've made a mistake, let me know and I'll send bit_by_bit some flowers.

"Why are you just posting stuff directly against another user: that's not cool"

Well, it's whatever motivates you eh?
I just go wound up by our discussions. But, I'm quite sure there are people on this board who don't know this stuff, so ... it's probably beneficial.
Have fun
EDIT: Ok, so I genuinely thought that I had made a fact-based post. Er, I added a few comments that I thought were funny, but I guess that wasn't a great idea. I removed one of my comments myself, but it's true that the moderators were in touch.....
And - to bit_by_bit, I am sorry, because some of the things I said were above and beyond "spirited discussion".
I absolutely agree that polite conduct is the way forward, and my initial "hang on a minute" reply to him was nice.
But, I do have to admit that this subject has wound me up a fair amount. I genuinely believe that he's made a quite serious mistake - but I am happy to be proved wrong. Right now - I just want to get to the bottom of this.
More Edit:

I am a miner

I didn't want to add this before, because I'm sure it (incorrectly) gives my argument more weight. But I need you to understand that bitcoin difficulty is a total motherfucker.
I pre-ordered a BFL single for 11BTC in May 2013. The difficulty was about 4 million, and I worked out I'd make 30BTC/day at those conditions.
It arrived at around 30 million difficulty, and I think now we're 18 billion.
I've made about 0.7 BTC mining, and It's on the limit of believability that I'll make 1BTC before I throw it in the bin. I have a suspicion that it will be useful in the future for some altcoin/blockchain like thing. Also, I got free heating (which was the whole reason I discovered bitcoin in the first place!)
Horrific loss. I think it makes about $1 more than it costs in electricity to run (at current price......)
This whole post is not a "bitter miner" but somebody who has experienced bitcoin's exponential difficulty First Hand. Honestly, it is unbelievable.
I genuinely think that the guy that does the profitability calculator deliberately does not explain what the 'profitability decline per year' is ... because he knows it will adversely harm bitcoin and the manufacture of miners.
Even More EDIT:

Am I sure I've got the difficulty increase thing right?

So, I've made a spreadsheet thing to see if the 0.0022 difficulty thing is right. It is.
All this table tells you is that in order to calculate 15% difficulty increase, you need to use a number LIKE 0.0022 in the 'profitability decline per year' box, and not 0.98 (which bit_by_bit calculated).
I've sanity checked my numbers against the 'profitability calculator' and they don't quite line up, but they're close enough. The difficulty is not the same either, but it's in the same region. I don't know why. Also, the months aren't exact fortnights, so they don't line up. These are details.
This proves my above workings to my satisfaction.

what is this horrible data?

It shows how much BTC your miner earns each 2 weeks (average difficulty change period). The last 2 rows (calc:) are from the profitability calculator website (and so are right). My attempt is on the left. Fortnight 13 is 6 months.
Oh, this graph uses 14.07% difficulty.
fortnight number "profitability decline" BTC earned BTC earned accumulated calculator says BTC
1 1 0.7518 0.7518 x
2 0.8593 0.64602174 1.39782174 1.361666667
3 0.73839649 0.555126481 1.952948221 x
4 0.634504104 0.477020185 2.429968406 2.295
5 0.545229376 0.409903445 2.839871852 x
6 0.468515603 0.35223003 3.192101882 2.938333333
7 0.402595458 0.302671265 3.494773147 x
8 0.345950277 0.260085418 3.754858565 3.378333333
9 0.297275073 0.2234914 3.978349965 x
10 0.25544847 0.19204616 4.170396125 3.68
11 0.21950687 0.165025265 4.33542139 x
12 0.188622254 0.14180621 4.477227601 3.888333333
13 0.162083103 0.121854077 4.599081677 x
14 0.13927801 0.104709208 4.703790885 4.03
15 0.119681594 0.089976622 4.793767508 x
16 0.102842394 0.077316912 4.871084419 3.213333333
17 0.088372469 0.066438422 4.937522842 x
18 0.075938463 0.057090536 4.994613378 4.195
19 0.065253921 0.049057898 5.043671276 x
20 0.056072694 0.042155452 5.085826727 4.241666667
21 0.048183266 0.03622418 5.122050907 x
22 0.041403881 0.031127437 5.153178344 4.273333333
23 0.035578355 0.026747807 5.179926151 x
24 0.03057248 0.022984391 5.202910542 4.295
25 0.026270932 0.019750487 5.222661028 x
26 0.022574612 0.016971593 5.239632622 x
2 bold numbers. 1 is approximately the 3.75 coins that gives you $1900 / coin whatever. 2 is the "profitability decline per year" as a tiny number. The pro tool comes up with 0.01095125 and I got 0.02257 but I don't care - it's close enough.
My whole point is that these numbers are totally unworkably all over the place. You can't calculate them meaningfully.

Dear Bit_by_Bit

I CANNOT BELIEVE the amount of effort that I have had to go to in order to show you that you made a minor mistake. (at time of writing you still deny it).
There is no doubt in my mind now that I was right in the first place. Your calculations do not include a significant difficulty increase.
I wish you well.
submitted by inteblio to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

Which are your Top 5 favourite coins out of the Top 100? An analysis.

I am putting together my investment portfolio for 2018 and made a complete summary of the current Top 100. Interestingly, I noticed that all coins can be categorized into 12 markets. Which markets do you think will play the biggest role in the coming year?
Here is a complete overview of all coins in an excel sheet including name, market, TPS, risk profile, time since launch (negative numbers mean that they are launching that many months in the future) and market cap. You can also sort by all of these fields of course. Coins written in bold are the strongest contenders within their market either due to having the best technology or having a small market cap and still excellent technology and potential. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1s8PHcNvvjuy848q18py_CGcu8elRGQAUIf86EYh4QZo/edit#gid=0
The 12 markets are
  1. Currency 13 coins
  2. Platform 25 coins
  3. Ecosystem 9 coins
  4. Privacy 10 coins
  5. Currency Exchange Tool 8 coins
  6. Gaming & Gambling 5 coins
  7. Misc 15 coins
  8. Social Network 4 coins
  9. Fee Token 3 coins
  10. Decentralized Data Storage 4 coins
  11. Cloud Computing 3 coins
  12. Stable Coin 2 coins
Before we look at the individual markets, we need to take a look of the overall market and its biggest issue scalability first:
Cryptocurrencies aim to be a decentralized currency that can be used worldwide. Its goal is to replace dollar, Euro, Yen, all FIAT currencies worldwide. The coin that will achieve that will be worth several trillion dollars.
Bitcoin can only process 7 transactions per second (TPS). In order to replace all FIAT, it would need to perform at at least VISA levels, which usually processes around 3,000 TPS, up to 25,000 TPS during peak times and a maximum of 64,000 TPS. That means that this cryptocurrency would need to be able to perform at least several thousand TPS. However, a ground breaking technology should not look at current technology to set a goal for its use, i.e. estimating the number of emails sent in 1990 based on the number of faxes sent wasn’t a good estimate.
For that reason, 10,000 TPS is the absolute baseline for a cryptocurrency that wants to replace FIAT. This brings me to IOTA, which wants to connect all 80 billion IoT devices that are expected to exist by 2025, which constantly communicate with each other, creating 80 billion or more transactions per second. This is the benchmark that cryptocurrencies should be aiming for. Currently, 8 billion devices are connected to the Internet.
With its Lightning network recently launched, Bitcoin is realistically looking at 50,000 possible soon. Other notable cryptocurrencies besides IOTA and Bitcoin are Nano with 7,000 TPS already tested, Dash with several billion TPS possible with Masternodes, Neo, LISK and RHOC with 100,000 TPS by 2020, Ripple with 50,000 TPS, Ethereum with 10,000 with Sharding.
However, it needs to be said that scalability usually goes at the cost of decentralization and security. So, it needs to be seen, which of these technologies can prove itself resilient and performant.
Without further ado, here are the coins of the first market

Market 1 - Currency:

  1. Bitcoin: 1st generation blockchain with currently bad scalability currently, though the implementation of the Lightning Network looks promising and could alleviate most scalability concerns, scalability and high energy use.
  2. Ripple: Centralized currency that might become very successful due to tight involvement with banks and cross-border payments for financial institutions; banks and companies like Western Union and Moneygram (who they are currently working with) as customers customers. However, it seems they are aiming for more decentralization now.https://ripple.com/dev-blog/decentralization-strategy-update/. Has high TPS due to Proof of Correctness algorithm.
  3. Bitcoin Cash: Bitcoin fork with the difference of having an 8 times bigger block size, making it 8 times more scalable than Bitcoin currently. Further block size increases are planned. Only significant difference is bigger block size while big blocks lead to further problems that don't seem to do well beyond a few thousand TPS. Opponents to a block size argue that increasing the block size limit is unimaginative, offers only temporary relief, and damages decentralization by increasing costs of participation. In order to preserve decentralization, system requirements to participate should be kept low. To understand this, consider an extreme example: very big blocks (1GB+) would require data center level resources to validate the blockchain. This would preclude all but the wealthiest individuals from participating.Community seems more open than Bitcoin's though.
  4. Litecoin : Little brother of Bitcoin. Bitcoin fork with different mining algorithm but not much else.Copies everything that Bitcoin does pretty much. Lack of real innovation.
  5. Dash: Dash (Digital Cash) is a fork of Bitcoin and focuses on user ease. It has very fast transactions within seconds, low fees and uses Proof of Service from Masternodes for consensus. They are currently building a system called Evolution which will allow users to send money using usernames and merchants will find it easy to integrate Dash using the API. You could say Dash is trying to be a PayPal of cryptocurrencies. Currently, cryptocurrencies must choose between decentralization, speed, scalability and can pick only 2. With Masternodes, Dash picked speed and scalability at some cost of decentralization, since with Masternodes the voting power is shifted towards Masternodes, which are run by Dash users who own the most Dash.
  6. IOTA: 3rd generation blockchain called Tangle, which has a high scalability, no fees and instant transactions. IOTA aims to be the connective layer between all 80 billion IOT devices that are expected to be connected to the Internet in 2025, possibly creating 80 billion transactions per second or 800 billion TPS, who knows. However, it needs to be seen if the Tangle can keep up with this scalability and iron out its security issues that have not yet been completely resolved.
  7. Nano: 3rd generation blockchain called Block Lattice with high scalability, no fees and instant transactions. Unlike IOTA, Nano only wants to be a payment processor and nothing else, for now at least. With Nano, every user has their own blockchain and has to perform a small amount of computing for each transaction, which makes Nano perform at 300 TPS with no problems and 7,000 TPS have also been tested successfully. Very promising 3rd gen technology and strong focus on only being the fastest currency without trying to be everything.
  8. Decred: As mining operations have grown, Bitcoin’s decision-making process has become more centralized, with the largest mining companies holding large amounts of power over the Bitcoin improvement process. Decred focuses heavily on decentralization with their PoW Pos hybrid governance system to become what Bitcoin was set out to be. They will soon implement the Lightning Network to scale up. While there do not seem to be more differences to Bitcoin besides the novel hybrid consensus algorithm, which Ethereum, Aeternity and Bitcoin Atom are also implementing, the welcoming and positive Decred community and professoinal team add another level of potential to the coin.
  9. Aeternity: We’ve seen recently, that it’s difficult to scale the execution of smart contracts on the blockchain. Crypto Kitties is a great example. Something as simple as creating and trading unique assets on Ethereum bogged the network down when transaction volume soared. Ethereum and Zilliqa address this problem with Sharding. Aeternity focuses on increasing the scalability of smart contracts and dapps by moving smart contracts off-chain. Instead of running on the blockchain, smart contracts on Aeternity run in private state channels between the parties involved in the contracts. State channels are lines of communication between parties in a smart contract. They don’t touch the blockchain unless they need to for adjudication or transfer of value. Because they’re off-chain, state channel contracts can operate much more efficiently. They don’t need to pay the network for every time they compute and can also operate with greater privacy. An important aspect of smart contract and dapp development is access to outside data sources. This could mean checking the weather in London, score of a football game, or price of gold. Oracles provide access to data hosted outside the blockchain. In many blockchain projects, oracles represent a security risk and potential point of failure, since they tend to be singular, centralized data streams. Aeternity proposes decentralizing oracles with their oracle machine. Doing so would make outside data immutable and unchangeable once it reaches Aeternity’s blockchain. Of course, the data source could still be hacked, so Aeternity implements a prediction market where users can bet on the accuracy and honesty of incoming data from various oracles.It also uses prediction markets for various voting and verification purposes within the platform. Aeternity’s network runs on on a hybrid of proof of work and proof of stake. Founded by a long-time crypto-enthusiast and early colleague of Vitalik Buterin, Yanislav Malahov. Promising concept though not product yet
  10. Bitcoin Atom: Atomic Swaps and hybrid consenus. This looks like the only Bitcoin clone that actually is looking to innovate next to Bitcoin Cash.
  11. Dogecoin: Litecoin fork, fantastic community, though lagging behind a bit in technology.
  12. Bitcoin Gold: A bit better security than bitcoin through ASIC resistant algorithm, but that's it. Not that interesting.
  13. Digibyte: Digibyte's PoS blockchain is spread over a 100,000+ servers, phones, computers, and nodes across the globe, aiming for the ultimate level of decentralization. DigiByte rebalances the load between the five mining algorithms by adjusting the difficulty of each so one algorithm doesn’t become dominant. The algorithm's asymmetric difficulty has gained notoriety and been deployed in many other blockchains.DigiByte’s adoption over the past four years has been slow. It’s still a relatively obscure currency compared its competitors. The DigiByte website offers a lot of great marketing copy and buzzwords. However, there’s not much technical information about what they have planned for the future. You could say Digibyte is like Bitcoin, but with shorter blocktimes and a multi-algorithm. However, that's not really a difference big enough to truly set themselves apart from Bitcoin, since these technologies could be implemented by any blockchain without much difficulty. Their decentralization is probably their strongest asset, however, this also change quickly if the currency takes off and big miners decide to go into Digibyte.
  14. Bitcoin Diamond Asic resistant Bitcoin and Copycat

Market 2 - Platform

Most of the cryptos here have smart contracts and allow dapps (Decentralized apps) to be build on their platform and to use their token as an exchange of value between dapp services.
  1. Ethereum: 2nd generation blockchain that allows the use of smart contracts. Bad scalability currently, though this concern could be alleviated by the soon to be implemented Lightning Network aka Plasma and its Sharding concept.
  2. EOS: Promising technology that wants to be able do everything, from smart contracts like Ethereum, scalability similar to Nano with 1000 tx/second + near instant transactions and zero fees, to also wanting to be a platform for dapps. However, EOS doesn't have a product yet and everything is just promises still. Highly overvalued right now. However, there are lots of red flags, have dumped $500 million Ether over the last 2 months and possibly bought back EOS to increase the size of their ICO, which has been going on for over a year and has raised several billion dollars. All in all, their market cap is way too high for that and not even having a product.
  3. Cardano: Similar to Ethereum/EOS, however, only promises made with no delivery yet, highly overrated right now. Interesting concept though. Market cap way too high for not even having a product. Somewhat promising technology.
  4. VeChain: Singapore-based project that’s building a business enterprise platform and inventory tracking system. Examples are verifying genuine luxury goods and food supply chains. Has one of the strongest communities in the crypto world. Most hyped token of all, with merit though.
  5. Neo: Neo is a platform, similar to Eth, but more extensive, allowing dapps and smart contracts, but with a different smart contract gas system, consensus mechanism (PoS vs. dBfT), governance model, fixed vs unfixed supply, expensive contracts vs nearly free contracts, different ideologies for real world adoption. There are currently only 9 nodes, each of which are being run by a company/entity hand selected by the NEO council (most of which are located in china) and are under contract. This means that although the locations of the nodes may differ, ultimately the neo council can bring them down due to their legal contracts. In fact this has been done in the past when the neo council was moving 50 million neo that had been locked up. Also dbft (or neo's implmentation of it) has failed underload causing network outages during major icos. The first step in decentralization is that the NEO Counsel will select trusted nodes (Universities, business partners, etc.) and slowly become less centralized that way. The final step in decentralization will be allowing NEO holders to vote for new nodes, similar to a DPoS system (ARK/EOS/LISK). NEO has a regulation/government friendly ideology. Finally they are trying to work undewith the Chinese government in regards to regulations. If for some reason they wanted it shut down, they could just shut it down.
  6. Stellar: PoS system, similar goals as Ripple, but more of a platform than only a currency. 80% of Stellar are owned by Stellar.org still, making the currency centralized.
  7. Ethereum classic: Original Ethereum that decided not to fork after a hack. The Ethereum that we know is its fork. Uninteresing, because it has a lot of less resources than Ethereum now and a lot less community support.
  8. Ziliqa: Zilliqa is building a new way of sharding. 2400 tpx already tested, 10,000 tps soon possible by being linearly scalable with the number of nodes. That means, the more nodes, the faster the network gets. They are looking at implementing privacy as well.
  9. QTUM: Enables Smart contracts on the Bitcoin blockchain. Useful.
  10. Icon: Korean ethereum. Decentralized application platform that's building communities in partnership with banks, insurance providers, hospitals, and universities. Focused on ID verification and payments. No big differentiators to the other 20 Ethereums, except that is has a product. That is a plus. Maybe cheap alternative to Ethereum.
  11. LISK: Lisk's difference to other BaaS is that side chains are independent to the main chain and have to have their own nodes. Similar to neo whole allows dapps to deploy their blockchain to. However, Lisk is currently somewhat centralized with a small group of members owning more than 50% of the delegated positions. Lisk plans to change the consensus algorithm for that reason in the near future.
  12. Rchain: Similar to Ethereum with smart contract, though much more scalable at an expected 40,000 TPS and possible 100,000 TPS. Not launched yet. No product launched yet, though promising technology. Not overvalued, probably at the right price right now.
  13. ARDR: Similar to Lisk. Ardor is a public blockchain platform that will allow people to utilize the blockchain technology of Nxt through the use of child chains. A child chain, which is a ‘light’ blockchain that can be customized to a certain extent, is designed to allow easy self-deploy for your own blockchain. Nxt claims that users will "not need to worry" about security, as that part is now handled by the main chain (Ardor). This is the chief innovation of Ardor. Ardor was evolved from NXT by the same company. NEM started as a NXT clone.
  14. Ontology: Similar to Neo. Interesting coin
  15. Bytom: Bytom is an interactive protocol of multiple byte assets. Heterogeneous byte-assets (indigenous digital currency, digital assets) that operate in different forms on the Bytom Blockchain and atomic assets (warrants, securities, dividends, bonds, intelligence information, forecasting information and other information that exist in the physical world) can be registered, exchanged, gambled and engaged in other more complicated and contract-based interoperations via Bytom.
  16. Nxt: Similar to Lisk
  17. Stratis: Different to LISK, Stratis will allow businesses and organizations to create their own blockchain according to their own needs, but secured on the parent Stratis chain. Stratis’s simple interface will allow organizations to quickly and easily deploy and/or test blockchain functionality of the Ethereum, BitShares, BitCoin, Lisk and Stratis environements.
  18. Status: Status provides access to all of Ethereum’s decentralized applications (dapps) through an app on your smartphone. It opens the door to mass adoption of Ethereum dapps by targeting the fastest growing computer segment in the world – smartphone users.16. Ark: Fork of Lisk that focuses on a smaller feature set. Ark wallets can only vote for one delegate at a time which forces delegates to compete against each other and makes cartel formations incredibly hard, if not impossible.
  19. Neblio: Similar to Neo, but 30x smaller market cap.
  20. NEM: Is similar to Neo No marketing team, very high market cap for little clarilty what they do.
  21. Bancor: Bancor is a Decentralized Liquidity Network that allows you to hold any Ethereum token and convert it to any other token in the network, with no counter party, at an automatically calculated price, using a simple web wallet.
  22. Dragonchain: The Purpose of DragonChain is to help companies quickly and easily incorporate blockchain into their business applications. Many companies might be interested in making this transition because of the benefits associated with serving clients over a blockchain – increased efficiency and security for transactions, a reduction of costs from eliminating potential fraud and scams, etc.
  23. Skycoin: Transactions with zero fees that take apparently two seconds, unlimited transaction rate, no need for miners and block rewards, low power usage, all of the usual cryptocurrency technical vulnerabilities fixed, a consensus mechanism superior to anything that exists, resistant to all conceivable threats (government censorship, community infighting, cybenucleaconventional warfare, etc). Skycoin has their own consensus algorithm known as Obelisk written and published academically by an early developer of Ethereum. Obelisk is a non-energy intensive consensus algorithm based on a concept called ‘web of trust dynamics’ which is completely different to PoW, PoS, and their derivatives. Skywire, the flagship application of Skycoin, has the ambitious goal of decentralizing the internet at the hardware level and is about to begin the testnet in April. However, this is just one of the many facets of the Skycoin ecosystem. Skywire will not only provide decentralized bandwidth but also storage and computation, completing the holy trinity of commodities essential for the new internet. Skycion a smear campaign launched against it, though they seem legit and reliable. Thus, they are probably undervalued.

Market 3 - Ecosystem

The 3rd market with 11 coins is comprised of ecosystem coins, which aim to strengthen the ease of use within the crypto space through decentralized exchanges, open standards for apps and more
  1. Nebulas: Similar to how Google indexes webpages Nebulas will index blockchain projects, smart contracts & data using the Nebulas rank algorithm that sifts & sorts the data. Developers rewarded NAS to develop & deploy on NAS chain. Nebulas calls this developer incentive protocol – basically rewards are issued based on how often dapp/contract etc. is used, the more the better the rewards and Proof of devotion. Works like DPoS except the best, most economically incentivised developers (Bookkeeppers) get the forging spots. Ensuring brains stay with the project (Cross between PoI & PoS). 2,400 TPS+, DAG used to solve the inter-transaction dependencies in the PEE (Parallel Execution Environment) feature, first crypto Wallet that supports the Lightening Network.
  2. Waves: Decentralized exchange and crowdfunding platform. Let’s companies and projects to issue and manage their own digital coin tokens to raise money.
  3. Salt: Leveraging blockchain assets to secure cash loands. Plans to offer cash loans in traditional currencies, backed by your cryptocurrency assets. Allows lenders worldwide to skip credit checks for easier access to affordable loans.
  4. CHAINLINK: ChainLink is a decentralized oracle service, the first of its kind. Oracles are defined as an ‘agent’ that finds and verifies real-world occurrences and submits this information to a blockchain to be used in smart contracts.With ChainLink, smart contract users can use the network’s oracles to retrieve data from off-chain application program interfaces (APIs), data pools, and other resources and integrate them into the blockchain and smart contracts. Basically, ChainLink takes information that is external to blockchain applications and puts it on-chain. The difference to Aeternity is that Chainlink deploys the smart contracts on the Ethereum blockchain while Aeternity has its own chain.
  5. WTC: Combines blockchain with IoT to create a management system for supply chains Interesting
  6. Ethos unifyies all cryptos. Ethos is building a multi-cryptocurrency phone wallet. The team is also building an investment diversification tool and a social network
  7. Aion: Aion is the token that pays for services on the Aeternity platform.
  8. USDT: is no cryptocurrency really, but a replacement for dollar for trading After months of asking for proof of dollar backing, still no response from Tether.

Market 4 - Privacy

The 4th market are privacy coins. As you might know, Bitcoin is not anonymous. If the IRS or any other party asks an exchange who is the identity behind a specific Bitcoin address, they know who you are and can track back almost all of the Bitcoin transactions you have ever made and all your account balances. Privacy coins aim to prevent exactly that through address fungability, which changes addresses constantly, IP obfuscation and more. There are 2 types of privacy coins, one with completely privacy and one with optional privacy. Optional Privacy coins like Dash and Nav have the advantage of more user friendliness over completely privacy coins such as Monero and Enigma.
  1. Monero: Currently most popular privacy coin, though with a very high market cap. Since their privacy is all on chain, all prior transactions would be deanonymized if their protocol is ever cracked. This requires a quantum computing attack though. PIVX is better in that regard.
  2. Zcash: A decentralized and open-source cryptocurrency that hide the sender, recipient, and value of transactions. Offers users the option to make transactions public later for auditing. Decent privacy coin, though no default privacy
  3. Verge: Calls itself privacy coin without providing private transactions, multiple problems over the last weeks has a toxic community, and way too much hype for what they have.
  4. Bytecoin: First privacy-focused cryptocurrency with anonymous transactions. Bytecoin’s code was later adapted to create Monero, the more well-known anonymous cryptocurrency. Has several scam accusations, 80% pre-mine, bad devs, bad tech
  5. Bitcoin Private: A merge fork of Bitcoin and Zclassic with Zclassic being a fork of Zcash with the difference of a lack of a founders fee required to mine a valid block. This promotes a fair distribution, preventing centralized coin ownership and control. Bitcoin private offers the optional ability to keep the sender, receiver, and amount private in a given transaction. However, this is already offered by several good privacy coins (Monero, PIVX) and Bitcoin private doesn't offer much more beyond this.
  6. Komodo: The Komodo blockchain platform uses Komodo’s open-source cryptocurrency for doing transparent, anonymous, private, and fungible transactions. They are then made ultra-secure using Bitcoin’s blockchain via a Delayed Proof of Work (dPoW) protocol and decentralized crowdfunding (ICO) platform to remove middlemen from project funding. Offers services for startups to create and manage their own Blockchains.
  7. PIVX: As a fork of Dash, PIVX uses an advanced implementation of the Zerocoin protocol to provide it’s privacy. This is a form of zeroknowledge proofs, which allow users to spend ‘Zerocoins’ that have no link back to them. Unlike Zcash u have denominations in PIVX, so they can’t track users by their payment amount being equal to the amount of ‘minted’ coins, because everyone uses the same denominations. PIVX is also implementing Bulletproofs, just like Monero, and this will take care of arguably the biggest weakness of zeroknowledge protocols: the trusted setup.
  8. Zcoin: PoW cryptocurrency. Private financial transactions, enabled by the Zerocoin Protocol. Zcoin is the first full implementation of the Zerocoin Protocol, which allows users to have complete privacy via Zero-Knowledge cryptographic proofs.
  9. Enigma: Monero is to Bitcoin what enigma is to Ethereum. Enigma is for making the data used in smart contracts private. More of a platform for dapps than a currency like Monero. Very promising.
  10. Navcoin: Like bitcoin but with added privacy and pos and 1,170 tps, but only because of very short 30 second block times. Though, privacy is optional, but aims to be more user friendly than Monero. However, doesn't really decide if it wants to be a privacy coin or not. Same as Zcash.Strong technology, non-shady team.
  11. Tenx: Raised 80 million, offers cryptocurrency-linked credit cards that let you spend virtual money in real life. Developing a series of payment platforms to make spending cryptocurrency easier. However, the question is if full privacy coins will be hindered in growth through government regulations and optional privacy coins will become more successful through ease of use and no regulatory hindrance.

Market 5 - Currency Exchange Tool

Due to the sheer number of different cryptocurrencies, exchanging one currency for the other it still cumbersome. Further, merchants don’t want to deal with overcluttered options of accepting cryptocurrencies. This is where exchange tool like Req come in, which allow easy and simple exchange of currencies.
  1. Cryptonex: Fiat and currency exchange between various blockchain services, similar to REQ.
  2. QASH: Qash is used to fuel its liquid platform which will be an exchange that will distribute their liquidity pool. Its product, the Worldbook is a multi-exchange order book that matches crypto to crypto, and crypto to fiat and the reverse across all currencies. E.g., someone is selling Bitcoin is USD on exchange1 not owned by Quoine and someone is buying Bitcoin in EURO on exchange 2 not owned by Quoine. If the forex conversions and crypto conversions match then the trade will go through and the Worldbook will match it, it'll make the sale and the purchase on either exchange and each user will get what they wanted, which means exchanges with lower liquidity if they join the Worldbook will be able to fill orders and take trade fees they otherwise would miss out on.They turned it on to test it a few months ago for an hour or so and their exchange was the top exchange in the world by 4x volume for the day because all Worldbook trades ran through it. Binance wants BNB to be used on their one exchange. Qash wants their QASH token embedded in all of their partners. More info here https://www.reddit.com/CryptoCurrency/comments/8a8lnwhich_are_your_top_5_favourite_coins_out_of_the/dwyjcbb/?context=3
  3. Kyber: network Exchange between cryptocurrencies, similar to REQ. Features automatic coin conversions for payments. Also offers payment tools for developers and a cryptocurrency wallet.
  4. Achain: Building a boundless blockchain world like Req .
  5. Req: Exchange between cryptocurrencies.
  6. Bitshares: Exchange between cryptocurrencies. Noteworthy are the 1.5 second average block times and throughput potential of 100,000 transactions per second with currently 2,400 TPS having been proven. However, bitshares had several Scam accusations in the past.
  7. Loopring: A protocol that will enable higher liquidity between exchanges and personal wallets.
  8. ZRX: Open standard for dapps. Open, permissionless protocol allowing for ERC20 tokens to be traded on the Ethereum blockchain. In 0x protocol, orders are transported off-chain, massively reducing gas costs and eliminating blockchain bloat. Relayers help broadcast orders and collect a fee each time they facilitate a trade. Anyone can build a relayer.

Market 6 - Gaming

With an industry size of $108B worldwide, Gaming is one of the largest markets in the world. For sure, cryptocurrencies will want to have a share of that pie.
  1. Storm: Mobile game currency on a platform with 9 million players.
  2. Fun: A platform for casino operators to host trustless, provably-fair gambling through the use of smart contracts, as well as creating their own implementation of state channels for scalability.
  3. Electroneum: Mobile game currency They have lots of technical problems, such as several 51% attacks
  4. Wax: Marketplace to trade in-game items

Market 7 - Misc

There are various markets being tapped right now. They are all summed up under misc.
  1. OMG: Omise is designed to enable financial services for people without bank accounts. It works worldwide and with both traditional money and cryptocurrencies.
  2. Power ledger: Australian blockchain-based cryptocurrency and energy trading platform that allows for decentralized selling and buying of renewable energy. Unique market and rather untapped market in the crypto space.
  3. Populous: A platform that connects business owners and invoice buyers without middlemen. Invoice sellers get cash flow to fund their business and invoice buyers earn interest. Similar to OMG, small market.
  4. Monacoin: The first Japanese cryptocurrency. Focused on micro-transactions and based on a popular internet meme of a type-written cat. This makes it similar to Dogecoin. Very niche, tiny market.
  5. Revain: Legitimizing reviews via the blockchain. Interesting concept, though market not as big.
  6. Augur: Platform to forecast and make wagers on the outcome of real-world events (AKA decentralized predictions). Uses predictions for a “wisdom of the crowd” search engine. Not launched yet.
  7. Substratum: Revolutionzing hosting industry via per request billing as a decentralized internet hosting system. Uses a global network of private computers to create the free and open internet of the future. Participants earn cryptocurrency. Interesting concept.
  8. Veritaseum: Is supposed to be a peer to peer gateway, though it looks like very much like a scam.
  9. TRON: Tronix is looking to capitalize on ownership of internet data to content creators. However, they plagiarized their white paper, which is a no go. They apologized, so it needs to be seen how they will conduct themselves in the future. Extremely high market cap for not having a product, nor proof of concept.
  10. Syscoin: A cryptocurrency with a decentralized marketplace that lets people buy and sell products directly without third parties. Trying to remove middlemen like eBay and Amazon.
  11. Hshare: Most likely scam because of no code changes, most likely pump and dump scheme, dead community.
  12. BAT: An Ethereum-based token that can be exchanged between content creators, users, and advertisers. Decentralized ad-network that pays based on engagement and attention.
  13. Dent: Decentralizeed exchange of mobile data, enabling mobile data to be marketed, purchased or distributed, so that users can quickly buy or sell data from any user to another one.
  14. Ncash: End to end encrypted Identification system for retailers to better serve their customers .
  15. Factom Secure record-keeping system that allows companies to store their data directly on the Blockchain. The goal is to make records more transparent and trustworthy .

Market 8 - Social network

Web 2.0 is still going strong and Web 3.0 is not going to ignore it. There are several gaming tokens already out there and a few with decent traction already, such as Steem, which is Reddit with voting through money is a very interesting one.
  1. Mithril: As users create content via social media, they will be rewarded for their contribution, the better the contribution, the more they will earn
  2. Steem: Like Reddit, but voting with money. Already launched product and Alexa rank 1,000 Thumbs up.
  3. Rdd: Reddcoin makes the process of sending and receiving money fun and rewarding for everyone. Reddcoin is dedicated to one thing – tipping on social networks as a way to bring cryptocurrency awareness and experience to the general public.
  4. Kin: Token for the platform Kik. Kik has a massive user base of 400 million people. Replacing paying with FIAT with paying with KIN might get this token to mass adoption very quickly.

Market 9 - Fee token

Popular exchanges realized that they can make a few billion dollars more by launching their own token. Owning these tokens gives you a reduction of trading fees. Very handy and BNB (Binance Coin) has been one of the most resilient tokens, which have withstood most market drops over the last weeks and was among the very few coins that could show growth.
  1. BNB: Fee token for Binance
  2. Gas: Not a Fee token for an exchange, but it is a dividend paid out on Neo and a currency that can be used to purchase services for dapps.
  3. Kucoin: Fee token for Kucoin

Market 10 - Decentralized Data Storage

Currently, data storage happens with large companies or data centers that are prone to failure or losing data. Decentralized data storage makes loss of data almost impossible by distributing your files to numerous clients that hold tiny pieces of your data. Remember Torrents? Torrents use a peer-to-peer network. It is similar to that. Many users maintain copies of the same file, when someone wants a copy of that file, they send a request to the peer-to-peer network., users who have the file, known as seeds, send fragments of the file to the requester., he requester receives many fragments from many different seeds, and the torrent software recompiles these fragments to form the original file.
  1. Gbyte: Byteball data is stored and ordered using directed acyclic graph (DAG) rather than blockchain. This allows all users to secure each other's data by referencing earlier data units created by other users, and also removes scalability limits common for blockchains, such as blocksize issue.
  2. Siacoin: Siacoin is decentralized storage platform. Distributes encrypted files to thousands of private users who get paid for renting out their disk space. Anybody with siacoins can rent storage from hosts on Sia. This is accomplish via "smart" storage contracts stored on the Sia blockchain. The smart contract provides a payment to the host only after the host has kept the file for a given amount of time. If the host loses the file, the host does not get paid.
  3. Maidsafecoin: MaidSafe stands for Massive Array of Internet Disks, Secure Access for Everyone.Instead of working with data centers and servers that are common today and are vulnerable to data theft and monitoring, SAFE’s network uses advanced P2P technology to bring together the spare computing capacity of all SAFE users and create a global network. You can think of SAFE as a crowd-sourced internet. All data and applications reside in this network. It’s an autonomous network that automatically sets prices and distributes data and rents out hard drive disk space with a Blockchain-based storage solutions.When you upload a file to the network, such as a photo, it will be broken into pieces, hashed, and encrypted. The data is then randomly distributed across the network. Redundant copies of the data are created as well so that if someone storing your file turns off their computer, you will still have access to your data. And don’t worry, even with pieces of your data on other people’s computers, they won’t be able to read them. You can earn MadeSafeCoins by participating in storing data pieces from the network on your computer and thus earning a Proof of Resource.
  4. Storj: Storj aims to become a cloud storage platform that can’t be censored or monitored, or have downtime. Your files are encrypted, shredded into little pieces called 'shards', and stored in a decentralized network of computers around the globe. No one but you has a complete copy of your file, not even in an encrypted form.

Market 11 - Cloud computing

Obviously, renting computing power, one of the biggest emerging markets as of recent years, e.g. AWS and Digital Ocean, is also a service, which can be bought and managed via the blockchain.
  1. Golem: Allows easy use of Supercomputer in exchange for tokens. People worldwide can rent out their computers to the network and get paid for that service with Golem tokens.
  2. Elf: Allows easy use of Cloud computing in exchange for tokens.

Market 12 - Stablecoin

Last but not least, there are 2 stablecoins that have established themselves within the market. A stable coin is a coin that wants to be independent of the volatility of the crypto markets. This has worked out pretty well for Maker and DGD, accomplished through a carefully diversified currency fund and backing each token by 1g or real gold respectively. DO NOT CONFUSE DGD AND MAKER with their STABLE COINS DGX and DAI. DGD and MAKER are volatile, because they are the companies of DGX and DAI. DGX and DAI are the stable coins.
  1. DGD: Platform of the Stablecoin DGX. Every DGX coin is backed by 1g of gold and make use proof of asset consensus.
  2. Maker: Platform of the Stablecoin DAI that doesn't vary much in price through widespread and smart diversification of assets.
EDIT: Added a risk factor from 0 to 10. The baseline is 2 for any crypto. Significant scandals, mishaps, shady practices, questionable technology, increase the risk factor. Not having a product yet automatically means a risk factor of 6. Strong adoption and thus strong scrutiny or positive community lower the risk factor.
EDIT2: Added a subjective potential factor from 0 to 10, where its overall potential and a small or big market cap is factored in. Bitcoin with lots of potential only gets a 9, because of its massive market cap, because if Bitcoin goes 10x, smaller coins go 100x, PIVX gets a 10 for being as good as Monero while carrying a 10x smaller market cap, which would make PIVX go 100x if Monero goes 10x.
submitted by galan77 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

How Ethereum block rewards changed: from 5 ETH to the thirdening

How Ethereum block rewards changed: from 5 ETH to the thirdening
In our last post, we talked about how new Ethereum blocks are mined, what uncle blocks are, and how miners get their rewards. This time, we’ll delve deeper into how the size of the reward is determined and thirdening means.
Ethereum is an inflationary currency. Its supply constantly grows, and there is no maximum limit on ETH supply. It’s the same with any fiat currency, actually. There can be as many USD in circulation as the US government wants to print. By the way, the situation is very different with Bitcoin, where the upper limit is set at 21 million BTC — and no more BTC will be mined beyond this point.
The difference between inflationary USD and inflationary ETH is that new ether is mined according to an algorithm. At any given moment, you can calculate how many new ETH will be produced on the main chain in the next 24 hours, week, or month. For example, right now the block reward is 2 ETH per block, and the average block time is 20 seconds. So about 6 new ETH are created every minute, 6*60=360 ETH every hour, and 360*24=8640 ETH every 24 hours.
To this, you need to add all the new ETH awarded for adding uncle blocks. As you may remember, when two blocks with the same transactions inside are mined at the same time, one is selected to be added to the main chain, and the other becomes an uncle block — a bit like an orphan block on Bitcoin. Some miners might continue to build on this uncle for a while, but eventually they abandoned it. We’ve also discussed that uncle blocks are rewarded, too, but at a lower rate. For the first one, a miner gets about 87.5% of the full block reward, but each new block added to the uncle chain gets less and less. That’s why miners switch to the main chain sooner or later.
Because it’s hard to predict how many uncle blocks there will be every day, you can’t calculate exactly how much new ether will be produced in any 24-hour period. But one thing is certain: Ethereum inflation never stops. And when there’s more money in circulation, it tends to lose value. So if the amount of ether becomes too great, its price might fall. The way the network tries to deal with this problem is to cut the block reward from time to time.
When Ethereum launched five years ago, a total of 72 million ether were produced as part of the genesis block. Those who contributed to the project were awarded 60 million ether, and the rest went to the Ethereum Foundation.
For a while after launch — until the block height of 4 399 999, to be precise — the reward was 5 ETH per block. Back then, the price wasn’t particularly high, though, so mining ETH wasn’t a get-rich-quick scheme at first.
On October 17, 2017, the Byzantium hard fork was activated. At block 4 370 000, the reward was cut from 5 ETH to 3 ETH. Uncle rewards were adjusted accordingly. This was part of the so-called EIP (Ethereum Improvement Proposal) 649.
Finally, on February 28, 2019, the Constantinople update went into effect at block height 7 280 000. That’s when the notorious “thirdening” happened. This means that the block reward was cut by one third — from 3 ETH to 2 ETH per block. This was an extremely controversial decision, and its negative effects for small, independent miners can be serious in the long term.
In our next post, we’ll talk about the difficulty bomb, the Ethereum ice age, and how miners can suffer from the thirdening. All this exposition is necessary before we can get to the most interesting part — 2Ether dynamic block rewards. Stay tuned and follow us on social network.
https://2ether.com/
Web site - https://2ether.com/
Twitter - https://twitter.com/2Ether_
Discord - https://discord.gg/TuqG4py
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Reddit - https://www.reddit.com/use2Ether
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Telegram - https://t.me/ether2support
Telegram chat - https://t.me/blockchain_2ether
submitted by 2Ether to u/2Ether [link] [comments]

BITCOIN DIFFICULTY ADJUSTMENT  Satoshi Nakamoto's Wallet  Market Analysis and Bitcoin News Bitcoin HACK 2020 BITCOIN GRATIS Bitcoin blockchain records mining difficulty record What Is Bitcoin Mining Difficulty? NEW BITCOIN HACK 2020 ✔ REMOTECHAIN WALLET HACK WALLET CAPTURE

Bitcoin (BTC) Mining Calculator is a simple calculator which can be used to calculate profitability or number of bitcoins can be generated using specific bitcoin mining hardware. To use the same you will need the configuration of your mining hardware and the electricity price in the area you are going to setup the bitcoin mining rig. 8MB - blocks containing string "8M" in their coinbase scriptSig (i.e. miners supporting block size increase to 8MB citation needed) ; BIP100 - blocks containing string "BV" + some digits in their coinbase scriptSig that is BIP100 (and others based on it), also includes blocks with string "BIP100" in coinbase ; BIP101 - blocks with version 0x20000007 as defined in BIP101 Find out what your expected return is depending on your hash rate and electricity cost. Find out if it's profitable to mine Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, DASH or Monero. Do you think you've got what it takes to join the tough world of cryptocurrency mining? The Bitcoin network has a global block difficulty. Valid blocks must have a hash below this target. Mining pools also have a pool-specific share difficulty setting a lower limit for shares. How often does the network difficulty change? Every 2016 blocks. What is the formula for difficulty? difficulty = difficulty_1_target / current_target Bitcoin Forecast. Litecoin Forecast. Bitcoinforecast 200 000 comments Giveaway. 200 000 comments giveaway ! In march to june 2018 I gave away 4 Ledger Nano S hardware wallets to say Thank You to everyone for making this site a great place on the internet.

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BITCOIN DIFFICULTY ADJUSTMENT Satoshi Nakamoto's Wallet Market Analysis and Bitcoin News

#macfee bitcoin prediction #bitcoin hits 1 million #bitcoin hit 1 million #bitcoin hits 100000 dollar ... #bitcoin mining calculator 2020 #bitcoin mining difficulty 2020 #vitrade. Loading... Bitcoin (BTC) mining difficulty has reached a new all-time high of 17 trillion hashes, but the price of the cryptocurrency remains at the same levels. After last week BTC hashrateset a new all ... #bitcoin prediction #macfee bitcoin prediction #bitcoin hits 1 million ... #bitcoin mining calculator 2019 #bitcoin mining difficulty 2019. Category People & Blogs; Show more Show less. Bitcoin difficulty ribbon - willy woo’s bitcoin difficulty ribbon suggests drop below $6,000/btc “very unlikely”. Click below and become rich today https://bit.ly/bitcoins0 Credit to Willy ... #bitcoin prediction #macfee bitcoin prediction #bitcoin hits 1 million ... #bitcoin mining calculator 2020 #bitcoin mining difficulty 2020. Category Science & Technology; Show more Show less.

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