Bitcoincharts | Charts

Fascinating chart: Bitcoin price versus its 200 day moving average.

Fascinating chart: Bitcoin price versus its 200 day moving average. submitted by Majoby to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Prepping for a Financial crisis / hyperinflation.

So what can we do about it? Any ideas are welcome.
It has a lot of "what if's"... It depends how tax and law play out with it.Historically speaking:
  1. -I stock bulk diesel for my cars while following historical averages to buy cheap.
  2. -Rotating food stock
  3. -Extra maintenance items, including the big things like a roof on your home if its coming time. Not joking I have a spare water heater and backup heating options, along with minor parts and filters to fix them. Same with cars and engines, (spark plugs, filters (all different filters), oil, cheap sensors that usually go bad and are only 4-10$ each, 1-2 extra alternator per vehicle, belts, mowing belts, bearings, grease, ... and I've literally had to use everything on that list and reorder.)
  1. -Security, Locks, Alarms, Cameras, people steal.
  2. A deep freezer for instance can stock food you use and buy on sale.
  3. Solar energy and solar heating supplements energy you use anyways
  4. Rainwater can be collected and used rather than buying from a source.
  5. A cooking gadget vs eating out.
  6. Tools and learning to fix things vs hire.
  7. House insulation.-Better insulative windows, and sealing.
  8. Geo-Thermal
  9. Gardening
  10. Bidet on toilet (lol serious though...)
  11. Backup power
  12. Your education can be a huge one, not just for prepping but also in your work.
  13. Things that prevent rot, fire, flood / humidity, or failure. Humidity is a silent killer to many preps. (water sump pumps, dehumidifiers, leak prevention, fire extinguishers / sprinklers, )
submitted by AntiSonOfBitchamajig to preppers [link] [comments]

DDDD - The Rise of “Buy the Dip” Retail Investors and Why Another Crash Is Imminent

DDDD - The Rise of “Buy the Dip” Retail Investors and Why Another Crash Is Imminent
In this week's edition of DDDD (Data-driven DD), I'll be going over the real reason why we have been seeing a rally for the past few weeks, defying all logic and fundamentals - retail investors. We'll look into several data sets to see how retail interest in stock markets have reached record levels in the past few weeks, how this affected stock prices, and why we've most likely seen the top at this point, unless we see one of the "positive catalysts" that I mentioned in my previous post, which is unlikely (except for more news about Remdesivir).
Disclaimer - This is not financial advice, and a lot of the content below is my personal opinion. In fact, the numbers, facts, or explanations presented below could be wrong and be made up. Don't buy random options because some person on the internet says so; look at what happened to all the SPY 220p 4/17 bag holders. Do your own research and come to your own conclusions on what you should do with your own money, and how levered you want to be based on your personal risk tolerance.
Inspiration
Most people who know me personally know that I spend an unhealthy amount of my free time in finance and trading as a hobby, even competing in paper options trading competitions when I was in high school. A few weeks ago, I had a friend ask if he could call me because he just installed Robinhood and wanted to buy SPY puts after seeing everyone on wallstreetbets post gains posts from all the tendies they’ve made from their SPY puts. The problem was, he actually didn’t understand how options worked at all, and needed a thorough explanation about how options are priced, what strike prices and expiration dates mean, and what the right strategy to buying options are. That’s how I knew we were at the euphoria stage of buying SPY puts - it’s when dumb money starts to pour in, and people start buying securities because they see everyone else making money and they want in, even if they have no idea what they’re buying, and price becomes dislocated from fundementals. Sure enough, less than a week later, we started the bull rally that we are currently in. Bubbles are formed when people buy something not because of logic or even gut feeling, but when people who previously weren’t involved see their dumb neighbors make tons of money from it, and they don’t want to miss out.
A few days ago, I started getting questions from other friends about what stocks they should buy and if I thought something was a good investment. That inspired me to dig a bit deeper to see how many other people are thinking the same thing.
Data
Ever since March, we’ve seen an unprecedented amount of money pour into the stock market from retail investors.
Google Search Trends
\"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020
\"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 12 months
\"stocks\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020
\"stocks\" Google Trends 12 months
Brokerage data
Robinhood SPY holders
\"Robinhood\" Google Trends 12 months
wallstreetbets' favorite broker Google Trends 12 months
Excerpt from E*Trade earnings statement
Excerpt from Schwab earnings statement
TD Ameritrade Excerpt
Media
cnbc.com Alexa rank
CNBC viewership & rankings
wallstreetbets comments / day

investing comments / day
Analysis
What we can see from Reddit numbers, Google Trends, and CNBC stats is that in between the first week of March and first week of April, we see a massive inflow of retail interest in the stock market. Not only that, but this inflow of interest is coming from all age cohorts, from internet-using Zoomers to TV-watching Boomers. Robinhood SPY holdings and earnings reports from E*Trade, TD Ameritrade, and Schwab have also all confirmed record numbers of new clients, number of trades, and assets. There’s something interesting going on if you look closer at the numbers. The numbers growth in brokers for designed for “less sophisticated” investors (i.e. Robinhood and E*Trade) are much larger than for real brokers (i.e. Schwab and Ameritrade). This implies that the record number of new users and trade volume is coming from dumb money. The numbers shown here only really apply to the US and Canada, but there’s also data to suggest that there’s also record numbers of foreign investors pouring money into the US stock market as well.
However, after the third week of March, we see the interest start to slowly decline and plateau, indicating that we probably have seen most of those new investors who wanted to have a long position in the market do so.
SPX daily
Rationale
Pretty much everything past this point is purely speculation, and isn’t really backed up by any solid data so take whatever I say here with a cup of salt. We could see from the graph that new investor interest started with the first bull trap we saw in the initial decline from early March, and peaking right after the end of the crash in March. So it would be fair to guess that we’re seeing a record amount of interest in the stock market from a “buy the dip” mentality, especially from Robinhood-using Millennials. Here’s a few points on my rationalization of this behavior, based on very weak anecdotal evidence
  • They missed out of their chance of getting in the stock market at the start of the bull market that happened at the end of 2009
  • They’ve all seen the stock market make record gains throughout their adult lives, but believing that the market might be overheated, they were waiting for a crash
  • Most of them have gotten towards the stage of their lives where they actually have some savings and can finally put some money aside for investments
  • This stock market crash seems like their once-in-a-decade opportunity that they’ve been waiting for, so everyone jumped in
  • Everyone’s stuck at their homes with vast amounts of unexpected free time on their hands
Most of these new investors got their first taste in the market near the bottom, and probably made some nice returns. Of course, since they didn’t know what they were doing, they probably put a very small amount of money at first, but after seeing a 10% return over one week, validating that maybe they do know something, they decide to slowly pour in more and more of their life savings. That’s what’s been fueling this bull market.
Sentiment & Magic Crayons
As I mentioned previously, this bull rally will keep going until enough bears convert to bulls. Markets go up when the amount of new bullish positions outnumber the amount of new bearish positions, and vice versa. Record amounts of new investors, who previously never held a position in the market before, fueled the bullish side of this equation, despite all the negative data that has come out and dislocating the price from fundamentals. All the smart money that was shorting the markets saw this happening, and flipped to become bulls because you don’t fight the trend, even if the trend doesn’t reflect reality.
From the data shown above, we can see new investor interest growth has started declining since mid March and started stagnating in early April. The declining volume in SPY since mid-March confirms this. That means, once the sentiment of the new retail investors starts to turn bearish, and everyone figures out how much the stocks they’re holding are really worth, another sell-off will begin. I’ve seen something very similar to this a few years ago with Bitcoin. Near the end of 2017, Bitcoin started to become mainstream and saw a flood of retail investors suddenly signing up for Coinbase (i.e. Robinhood) accounts and buying Bitcoin without actually understanding what it is and how it works. Suddenly everyone, from co-workers to grandparents, starts talking about Bitcoin and might have thrown a few thousand dollars into it. This appears to be a very similar parallel to what’s going on right now. Of course there’s differences here in that equities have an intrinsic value, although many of them have gone way above what they should be intrinsically worth, and the vast majority of retail investors don’t understand how to value companies. Then, during December, when people started thinking that the market was getting a bit overheated, some started taking their profits, and that’s when the prices crashed violently. This flip in sentiment now look like it has started with equities.
SPY daily
Technical Analysis, or magic crayons, is a discipline in finance that uses statistical analysis to predict market trends based on market sentiment. Of course, a lot of this is hand-wavy and is very subjective; two people doing TA on the same price history can end up getting opposite results, so TA should always be taken with a grain of salt and ideally be backed with underlying justification and not be blindly followed. In fact, I’ve since corrected the ascending wedge I had on SPY since my last post since this new wedge is a better fit for the new trading data.
There’s a few things going on in this chart. The entire bull rally we’ve had since the lows can be modelled using a rising wedge. This is a pattern where there is a convergence of a rising support and resistance trendline, along with falling volume. This indicates a slow decline in net bullish sentiment with investors, with smaller and smaller upside after each bounce off the support until it hits a resistance. The smaller the bounces, the less bullish investors are. When the bearish sentiment takes over across investors, the price breaks below this wedge - a breakdown, and indicates a start of another downtrend.
This happened when the wedge hit resistance at around 293, which is around the same price as the 200 day moving average, the 62% retracement (considered to be the upper bound of a bull trap), and a price level that acted as a support and resistance throughout 2019. The fact that it gapped down to break this wedge is also a strong signal, indicating a sudden swing in investor sentiment overnight. The volume of the break down also broke the downwards trend of volume we’ve had since the beginning of the bull rally, indicating a sudden surge of people selling their shares. This doesn’t necessarily mean that we will go straight from here, and I personally think that we will see the completion of a heads-and-shoulders pattern complete before SPY goes below 274, which in itself is a strong support level. In other words, SPY might go from 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 before breaking the 274 support level.
VIX Daily
Doing TA is already sketchy, and doing TA on something like VIX is even more sketchy, but I found this interesting so I’ll mention it. Since the start of the bull rally, we’ve had VIX inside a descending channel. With the breakdown we had in SPY yesterday, VIX has also gapped up to have a breakout from this channel, indicating that we may see future volatility in the next week or so.
Putting Everything Together
Finally, we get to my thesis. This entire bull rally has been fueled by new retail investors buying the dip, bringing the stock price to euphoric levels. Over the past few weeks, we’ve been seeing the people waiting at the sidelines for years to get into the stock market slowly FOMO into the rally in smaller and smaller volumes, while the smart money have been locking in their profits at an even slower rate - hence an ascending wedge. As the amount of new retail interest in the stock market started slowed down, the amount of new bulls started to decline. It looks like Friday might have been the start of the bearish sentiment taking over, meaning it’s likely that 293 was the top, unless any significant bullish events happen in the next two weeks like a fourth round of stimulus, in which case we might see 300. This doesn’t mean we’ll instantly go back to circuit breakers on Monday, and we might see 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 happen before panic, this time by the first-time investors, eventually bringing us down towards SPY 180.
tldr; we've reached the top
EDIT - I'll keep a my live thoughts here as we move throughout this week in case anyone's still reading this and interested.
5/4 8PM - /ES was red last night but steadily climbed, which was expected since 1h RSI was borderline oversold, leaving us to a slightly green day. /ES looks like it has momentum going up, but is approaching towards overbought territory now. Expecting it to go towards 284 (possibly where we'll open tomorrow) and bouncing back down from that price level
5/5 Market Open - Well there goes my price target. I guess at this point it might go up to 293 again, but will need a lot of momentum to push back there to 300. Seems like this is being driven by oil prices skyrocketing.
5/5 3:50PM - Volume for the upwards price action had very little volume behind it. Seeing a selloff EOD today, could go either way although I have a bearish bias. Going to hold cash until it goes towards one end of the 274-293 channel (see last week's thesis). Still believe that we will see it drop below 274 next week, but we might be moving sideways in the channel this week and a bit of next week before that happens. Plan for tomorrow is buy short dated puts if open < 285. Otherwise, wait till it goes to 293 before buying those puts
5/5 6PM - What we saw today could be a false breakout above 284. Need tomorrow to open below 285 for that to be confirmed. If so, my original thesis of it going back down to 274 before bouncing back up will still be in play.
5/6 EOD - Wasn't a false breakout. Looks like it's still forming the head-and-shoulders pattern mentioned before, but 288 instead of 284 as the level. Still not sure yet so I'm personally going to be holding cash and waiting this out for the next few days. Will enter into short positions if we either go near 293 again or drop below 270. Might look into VIX calls if VIX goes down near 30.
5/7 Market Open - Still waiting. If we break 289 we're probably heading to 293. I'll make my entry to short positions when we hit that a second time. There's very little bullish momentum left (see MACD 1D), so if we hit 293 and then drop back down, we'll have a MACD crossover event which many traders and algos use as a sell signal. Oil is doing some weird shit.
5/7 Noon - Looks like we're headed to 293. Picked up VIX 32.5c 5/27 since VIX is near 30.
5/7 11PM - /ES is hovering right above 2910, with 4h and 1h charts are bullish from MACD and 1h is almost overbought in RSI. Unless something dramatic happens we'll probably hit near 293 tomorrow, which is where I'll get some SPY puts. We might drop down before ever touching it, or go all the way to 295 (like last time) during the day, but expecting it to close at or below 293. After that I'm expecting a gap down Monday as we start the final leg down next week towards 274. Expecting 1D MACD to crossover in the final leg down, which will be a signal for bears to take over and institutions / day traders will start selling again
5/8 Market Open - Plan is to wait till a good entry today, either when technicals looks good or we hit 293, and then buy some SPY June 285p and July 275p
5/8 Noon - Everything still going according to plan. Most likely going to slowly inch towards 293 by EOD. Will probably pick up SPY puts and more VIX calls at power hour (3 - 4PM). Monday will probably gap down, although there's a small chance of one more green / sideways day before that happens if we have bullish catalysts on the weekend.
5/8 3:55PM - SPY at 292.60. This is probably going to be the closest we get to 293. Bought SPY 290-260 6/19 debit spreads and 292-272 5/15 debit spreads, as well as doubling down on VIX calls from yesterday, decreasing my cost basis. Still looks like there's room for one more green day on Monday, so I left some money on the side to double down if that's the case, although it's more likely than not we won't get there.
5/8 EOD - Looks like we barely touched 293 exactly AH before rebounding down. Too bad you can't buy options AH, but more convinced we'll see a gap down on Monday. Going to work on another post over the weekend and do my updates there. Have a great weekend everyone!
submitted by ASoftEngStudent to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Message to all of my followers:

Hope everyone is having a good ass day today. This might be long. Please upvote so others are more likely to see in their feeds.
I have really wanted to start sharing my other forms of trading with you guys. I trade forex and did well this week betting on usd strength against the safe haven currency Japanese yen.
I’m also invested at $2,200 into a crypto currency called cindicator. I have 392,197 shares. Trying to get to 700,000 for access to their highest tier of trading indicators. I’ve followed this company for a long ass time and their product is great. If the price gets back to its high of $0.37, it’s a 6,959% profit for me. I’m expecting it to hit AT LEAST a dollar during this next bull run due to cnd/btc charts. Crypto currencies are similar to pennystocks in their volatility.
I also have very good evidence that bitcoin is about to start moving up very rapidly. The halving event that pushed it up to $20,000 just happened again two weeks ago. I and probably everyone else are expecting $100,000 bitcoin by October 2021 due to bitcoin stock to flow model. That indicator was designed by some billion dollar hedge fund manager and its accuracy is something I’ve never seen before. Please read the bottom half where it explains how that indicator works. Truly impressive.
I’m also learning how to trade SPY options, and I just made my first winning trade after a week of losing by buying SPY 298c 5/29
So my question is, are you interested in learning other forms of trading? By order of difficulty, we’d start with crypto currency. Mainly bitcoin and a handful of others. It’s pretty straightforward until you get into cold storage. Then forex which is complicated, and options further down the line after I understand them fully. Or if the consensus is forex or options, we’ll start there.
My main goal in Reddit is to make you guys better traders/ investors. One of my next personal goals is to get my series 7 and 65 licenses and do this shit professionally.
I’ve done the math, and if my average return in forex at ~10% per month stays consistent, managing $5,000,000 in client money and charging 20% would mean I make $80,000 a month. I’m currently building my trading history on Oanda as the first step in this process. So if you start seeing me in suits and ties on my streams, you’ll know what’s up.
Let me know if you’re interested. I’m not sure how I would do it. Maybe just include [BTC] in my headlines about crypto currency stuff when I post so that it’s easy to skim over for those not interested. I don’t want to start an isolated subreddit or anything like that.
submitted by trevandezz to u/trevandezz [link] [comments]

MU and XLNX beat

For Trading JUNE 30TH
Pending Home Sales +44.3% in May
BA Adds 168 Points to the DJIA
MU & XLNX Beat, SPG Reaffirms Div.
Today’s market got off to a good start based on the futures, and within the first few minutes started a selloff to the low of the day (+70) and then turned on a dime and started higher again and by 10:00 were had hit +450. We moved sideways to higher until the last 15 minutes we had rallied to a new high and closed +580.25 (2.32%), NASDAQ +116.93 (1.2%), S&P 500 +44.19 (1.47%), the Russell +42.43 (3.08%) and the Transports +246.90 (2.8%). Market internals were good with the NYSE A/D 3:1 and NAZ 2:1, while NYSE A/D volume was better than 5:1. Overall volume was about unchanged from Friday. The DJIA was 29:1 with the biggest mover BA +168 DP’s and the others a far distant AAPL +56, HD +35 and GS 20 DP’s). The Pending Home sales this morning added to the market as soon as it was released. Homebuilders were up anywhere from 3%, (LEN & DHI) to 8.8% (BZH & TOL), and the ETF, XHB finished $43.45 +1.67 (4%).
We added some CVS 7/67.50 calls on the decline with an average price of $1.16 and they finished $ .66, and the NEM 7/17 $60’s @ 1.55 and added to last Friday @ $1.30 for an average of $1.47 triggered a 100% Up Rule sale at $2.94 this morning. They closed today $2.12.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 1900 members. I also did this video titled “How to survive being an options trader and not blow up your account,” over the long weekend. I think it’s highly informative as a guide to stock selection and option choices. The link is https://youtu.be/Y7H9RpWfLlo Enjoy!!
Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/AeKKwW1lmKw SECTORS: The news of COVID-19 surges in cases to new highs has caused the states of both Texas and Florida to halt the progression of their re-openings. In fact, both states have closed bars since it is a place for younger people to gather and the 25 -39 group shows the biggest increases in cases. There are states that have seen increases of up to 300% from where they were when the re-openings began. For a look at how ALL the states are doing use this link: https://rt.live/ There were 2 stars in the market today; the obvious brightest star was Boeing (BA) on the strength of it starting FAA piloted flights of the 737 MAX for re-certification. The flights seem to be okay, but the flights are just the tip of the iceberg since all of the data now has to be analyzed. I’m sure it will be a little while before we hear anything substantive, but it was a start after over 440 days of grounding (March 2019). But buyers wouldn’t be stopped after the recent decline from the recovery high of $234 to close $170.01 Friday. The stock opened $181.65 and traded up to $194.50 before closing on the highs at $194.49 +24.48 (14.4%). The second star was FB, embroiled in the cancellation of ads but some of the world’s biggest and best companies due to racist and hate oriented content. Last Tuesday before the advertisers started pulling ads the stock had made a new all-time high at $245 but started lower the next day. On Friday Unilever and KO had pulled (adding to the list of medium sized firms) and the stock fell to $215. This morning Starbucks adding to the list and the stock fell to $207.11 before the market took off (see above) and by 10:45 it had crossed unchanged and kept moving to close $220.64 +4.56 (2.1%) but $13 from the low. We’ll have to see what it can do when it gets to supply between $224-226. Earning from two chip makers both beat, and both gave solid guidance. MU finished $52.11 +2.96 (6%), while XLNX was $98.47 +6.50 (7%). Simon Property Group (SPG) reaffirmed its earnings quoting the fact that 199 of their 204 properties across 37 states are open and operating. They also declared their dividend and added that they expect to pay $6.00 in cash for 2020. The stock had closed $68.13 +6.23 (10%) but rose further in late trading and was $72.52 + $439 or another 6.4%. In the financials, after the close several, (BAC, MS, C, and MS) all affirmed current rates while WFC said it will have to cut their payout. The stock fell about $ .25.
FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN +.97, BGS +.63, FLO +.75, CPB +.85, CAG +1.77, MDLZ +.78, KHC +.81, CALM +.68, JJSF +6.39, SAFM -.64, HRL +.13, SJM +2.07, PPC -.38, KR +1.39, and PBJ $30.87 +.54 (1.81%).
BIOPHARMA was MIXED with BIIB +1.34, ABBV +.16, REGN -.49, ISRG +3.92, GILD +.24, MYL +.12, TEVA -.01, VRTX -.64, BHC -.01, INCY +1.05, ICPT $47.10 -30.39 (39.2%) ON THE FDA HAVING QUESTIONS ABOUT THEIR NASH (LIVER) TREATMENT. IBB was $134.88 -.48 (.36%).
CANNABIS: was MIXED with TLRY -.21, CGC +.55, CRON +.11, GWPH +1.72, ACB -.08, CURLF +.03, KERN +.01 and MJ $13.01 +.19 (1.48%).
DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +11.24, GD +3.29, TXT +1.51, NOC +7.14, BWXT +.91, TDY +5.60, RTX +2.91, and ITA $167.42 +9.04 (5.71%).
RETAIL: was HIGHER with M +.71, JWN +1.21, KSS +2.01, DDS +1.80, WMT +.80, TGT +1.55, TJX +1.47, RL +5.29, UAA +.74, LULU +14.57, TPR +.80, CPRI +1.29, and XRT $42.25 + 1.01 (2.45%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +39.46, AMZN -3.21, AAPL +9.57, FB +4.22, NFLX +4.60, NVDA +6.00, TSLA +46.25, BABA -.11, BIDU -.51, CMG +14.85, CAT +3.61, BA +22.33 (13.2%), DIS +2.90, and XLK $103.19 +1.65 (1.02%).
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +5.81, JPM +1.09, BAC +.28, MS +.56, C +1.26, PNC +2.82, AIG +.97, TRV +1.90, AXP +1.58, V +3.23, and XLF $22.88 +.28 (1.24%).
OIL, $39.70 +1.21. Oil was lower last night trading as low as $37.50 before we rallied well off those levels. I mentioned in last night’s charts with comments section in the Weekly Strategies letter, prices are trying to work higher towards $45.00. The stocks were higher with XLE $37.24 +.74 (2.03%).
GOLD $1781.20 + .90. It was a small pull-back after the strong rally of the end of last week, and after touching $1796 last week we turned back lower and tested $1754 before bursting higher Friday. We bought back the 3rd and final lot of NEM @ $58.86. And, we also added a half position in NEM 7/17 60 calls @ $1.55, and additional 50% @ $1.30 on Friday. We sold half on the 100% Up Rule @ $2.94 yesterday and we closed $2.12 today.
BITCOIN: closed $9,200 -20. After trading back to 8985 we rallied back to close – only $5. Since last week we have closed between 9200 – 92.85 every day with narrow ranges. A break over 10,000 still sends us higher. We added 350 shares of GBTC last Wednesday @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97. GBTC closed $9.48 - .22 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to OptionsOnly [link] [comments]

One Year Update: 38M FIREd

Well, February 22nd makes it one whole year. I think that's deserving of a top level post, right?
Here are screenshots of the Mint Trends, which has every single expense from the past year categorized. I've added comments on each page.
Expenses Overview
Auto Expenses
Food Expenses
Home Expenses
Utility Expenses
Tax Expenses
Healthcare Expenses
Entertainment Expenses
Main takeaways, my total expenses for the year was $37,700, but I'm going to dismiss about $15,000 of that as "one time" expenses from paying off my car and my furniture loan. A more reasonable number for my annual spend is $22,700.
With my car payment gone, my highest expense category is Food, averaging $500 per month. This has room for improvement.
Healthcare will look artificially low last year because of taking Tax Credits up front. This year I am not and will be paying $325 per month for health insurance. At ~$4000 per year, this puts healthcare at nearly 20% of my total expenses.
Nothing else is particularly interesting. That $22,700 figure is a reasonable real-world number for me, but for future planning I'd still inflate that to $25,000 just to have more wiggle room. I may look into traveling this year, which would add some expense.
Investments:
Vanguard Investments: (All in VTSAX)
Other LTCG holdings: $145,000 -> $291,000 (other investment accounts and bitcoin)
HSA Investment Account: $6000 -> $7400, with another $1700 in the "cash" holdings of the HSA.
$9000 cash in Money Market & Checking Account.
Finances Going Forward
I had earned income last year so I didn't start my Roth Conversion Ladder last year. This year I decided I will be converting the $12,400 standard deduction + $9600 of the first tax bracket for a nice round $22,000 converted. Yes I'll owe a little bit of taxes, but it sets up my Roth with $22k in 5 years which should cover the majority of my expenses. And with $350k currently in tIRA and converting $22,000 per year, I won't be able to chew through it all before actual retirement age.
I have about $20k from an old stock purchase plan that unlocks come April, which I will be selling and likely moving over to my money market account to shore up my "cash" holdings.
My plan is to not really tap any of my "normal" investment accounts for as long as possible. I've been deferring to selling Bitcoin if I need to move some cash over. Last year I sold 3 bitcoin, one for $9300 in June, and then two at the end of December (for tax year Capital Gains reasons) for $7300 each. These were all LTCG at 0% taxed. AGI for last year is around $35,000.
The Living Part:
There's all the boring expenses and financial stuff. Now for the ever painful question that my beloved Grandmother loves to ask, "But gosh, what do you do with all of your time! I can't imagine being retired at your age!"
Step 1, restful sleep. During my working career I lived off 6 hours of sleep every day. It made for exhausting weekends trying to "make it up." And luckily I'm not a generally stressful person or else it'd have been worse. But now I go to bed when I'm tired, and whenever I naturally wake up, I get up. This can lead to VERY weird hours since I'm often an extreme night owl. But I generally get 9-10 perfect restful uninterrupted dream-filled hours of sleep.
I'm betrayed by my "Food Expense" breakdown, but I really am cooking more and eating better. I drink a lot of coffee and water at home and generally try to eat only one meal per day, but sometimes lunch and dinner. I don't normally eat breakfast, just have coffee when I wake up. And did I mention how much less painful it is to go grocery shopping when it's in the middle of the day and everyone's at work. It's so nice.
I spend a lot of time on reddit browsing my front page, and I check out the YouTubers I follow that post daily, then check out any of the irregular posters. Depending on how much good stuff there is, this could go on for a few hours.
I have a lot of hours playing video games. I tend toward puzzle games or building games (Factorio, Satisfactory) because they scratch that itch in my engineering brain. There are times at night where I'll spend hours on this website: https://www.puzzle-sudoku.com/ and play Sudoku or Nonograms or any of the other puzzle types on the bottom of the page.
I'm doing my best to watch every single last show on Netflix. It's a daunting task, though it's surprising how often I drift back toward watching the same smattering of Star Trek: The Next Generation episodes rather than try something new. But I try and take recommendations and work my way through shows.
And Podcasts! The joy of joys is when I come across a new-to-me podcast that has a huge backlog. I found a great ST:TNG rewatch podcast that had 108 episodes already done. I spent like 2 months watching the episode of TNG then immediately listening to their podcast about that episode, repeat repeat repeat. I'm currently working my way through The Adventure Zone, I'm on episode 46 of 155 with them. And they keep advertising the other podcasts The McElroys do so I'm sure I'll roll into one of those next. For many people podcasts are background noise, but I'll often just sit on the couch and concentrate on just listening the podcast.
Outside of home, I can't wait for the weather to get nicer so I can go on more walks. Being a night owl I like going for walks at night. I live near our city center so I'm within blocks of city hall, the main library branch, and the fountain / park.
I jump at any opportunity to hang out with friends. It's just about every weekend that we are getting together to hang out and play board games. Like I mentioned in one of the breakdowns, I've started to play D&D with my buddy and his wife. I'd never played before but he's been DMing for years (but hasn't had a group for 10+ years now). He's glad to be playing again, his wife loves it, and it's super convenient for them to stay home with the 5 month old daughter. (And baby gets to hang out with Uncle Oracle.)
I get together with former co-workers every few months to keep in touch with them. One in particular I have a standing every-2-month bar date with. I remind them every so often that if they want to go out to lunch ever to just call me.
Personal History
Just a quick personal history in closing. I was an automotive engineer working for OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers in the Metro Detroit area. In the 2008 downturn I lost my job and was unemployed for 2 years and ended up getting my house foreclosed in 2010. By the time i got a job in March of 2010 I was basically at $0. I had a tiny amount in an 401k, had about $20,000 in credit card debt from being unemployed.
But then I got a very well paying engineering job ($108k annual and eligible for time-and-half overtime). I kept living like I was unemployed, spent as little as possible and saved as much as possible. Through my parents I secured a mortgage on a nice 1 Bed / 1 Bath 900 sq ft condo. I paid off my CC debt in less than a year and kept banking cash and maxing my 401k every year.
I heard about bitcoin in early 2013 (from a guildmate in World of Warcraft, believe it or not) and jumped on board. All time bitcoin price chart (log scale) for those unfamiliar with the history. I got in before the first spike to $1000 in December of 2013, and kept buying throughout the downswing in 2014 / 2015. In 2017 I sold 5.6 BTC for a total of $6000 and paid off the last of my student loans and my car, then a few months later I sold 4.25 BTC for $6700 and paid off the last of my condo mortgage. So in May of 2017 I was officially debt free and had a net worth of about $200,000.
Then in the fall of 2017 was when bitcoin exploded. I knew I had to take profits here. Every time the price went up 10% I sold another bitcoin. $7500, $9000, $10700, $13000, $15500, $18600. I sold all the way up. I ended up selling about $100,000 in bitcoin that year and I pushed most of it into my Roth IRA and Brokerage accounts.
Then I really started thinking about FIRE in early 2018. Started doing the math, tried to see what my expenses would be, and thought I'd give it ago. I've told myself from day 1 that I'd give this trial a solid 2 years. If I don't feel good about it, or the money doesn't seem right, then I'll still only be 40 years old and could (IMO) easily jump right back into an engineering gig. So I targeted early 2019 so I could frontload my 401k for two months, grab the annual bonus, then peace out.
TL:DR: 38, FIREd, Money's looking right, Life is feeling right, everything is fine
submitted by Oracle_of_FIRE to financialindependence [link] [comments]

For Trading April 30th

OIL Moves Higher
GOOGL, TSLA, & MSFT Blow Away Numbers
Russell the Big Winner
Today’s market got off to a dramatic start when already +200 in the futures, GILD came out with positive news on the NIAID trial for Remdesivir and we added an additional 250 to the open. The Fed FOMC was a nonevent, but after the Q&A, it became obvious that the money train would keep rolling, the Gold moved higher. The final numbers were impressive with DJIA +532.31 (2.21%), NASDAQ +306.98 (3.57%), S&P 500 +76.12 (2.66%), the Russell, the big winner +62.68 (4.83%) and the DJ Transports +221.30 (2.63%). Market internals were strong with NYSE 7:1 and NASDAQ 4:1 and for the first time in recent memory, volume was higher. The DJIA was 24:6 with WMT the only double-digit loser -30 DPs while on the upside we had V +72, AAPL +62, AXP & BA +53, and MSFT +52 (and more coming in the morning).
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 1900 members. I also did this video titled “How to survive being an options trader and not blow up your account,” over the long weekend. I think it’s very informative as a guide to stock selection and option choices. The link is https://youtu.be/Y7H9RpWfLlo Enjoy!!
Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/el59hhpILHY
SECTORS: Earnings played a big part in today’s market. After the close last night, we heard from Google and it was a beat on revenues and after closing $1232.59 -38.27 and finished the evening $1267 +35. It continued higher today and finished $1345.02 +112.43 (9.12%). After today’s close we heard from a few of the other FAANG names. FaceBook was a miss both top and bottom but the guidance they gave on ad spending was upbeat. After closing 194.19 +11.28 it to 214.57 + another $20. MSFT beat on both numbers and after closing $177.43 +7.62 it shot higher to 186.52 before closing $181.25 + 3.82. TSLA was the last one to report and the stock has been on a tear from a low of $350 in mid-March to close today $800.51 +31.39 and put out a profitable quarter and talked about it big truck. The stock moved to $886.89 and closed $870.30 for a total gain of $101.88 (13.25%).
And, the HOMERUN OF THE DAY is clearly Capricor Therapeutics (CAPR) reported that it had a 100% survival of its patients treated with CAP-1002. All were in deep respiratory distress and 5 of the 6 were on ventilators. Four of the six have already been discharged. The stock, which has been reversed twice, most recently 1:10, and the last time 1:50 finished the day $8.50 +6.09 (252.7%) Clearly a home run. But with a side note since the adjusted high after both reverses is $2,720. Quite a destroyer of equity.
FOOD SUPPLY: was LOWER with TSN +.74, BGS -.75, FLO -.47, CAG -.19, MDLZ -.55, KHC +.81, CALM -.79, JJSF +10.71 (8.48%), SAFM -3.43, and LANC +3.09.
BIOPHARMA: was HIGHER with BIIB -.46, ABBV +1.20, REGN -17.26 (3.27%), ISRG +16.27 (3.23%), GILD +6.37, MYL +1.06, TEVA +.36, VRTX +1.54, BHC +.95, INCY -1.71, ICPT +1.07, LABU +1.36, and IBB $126.55 +1.74 (1.39%).
CANNABIS: This group was HIGHER with TLRY +.18, CGC +.46, CRON +.06, GWPH -.18, ACB +.01, PYX +.03, NBEV +.03, CURLF +.30 (6.67%), KERN -.21 and MJ $12.44 +.18 (1.47%).
DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +8.17, RTX +3.39, GD +.71, TXT +1.48, NOC -12.70, BWXT -.07, TDY +12.71 and ITA $161.85 +7.91 (5.14%).
RETAIL was HIGHER with WMT the big loser again -3.89 (3.04%), M +.26, JWN -.02, KSS +.66, DDS -.45, JCP -.017, TGT +.85, TJX +4.90 (9.98%), RL +2.53, UAA +.19, LULU +7.96, TPPR +1.24 (7.7%), CPRI +1.68 (11.17%), and XRT $37.92 +1.10 (2.99%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +112.43 (9.12%), AMZN +104.12 (4.5%), AAPL +13.72 (4.92%), FB +31.66 (17.31%), NFLX +8.68, NVDA +9.44, TSLA +101.80 (13.25%), BABA +7.15, BIDU +3.12, CMG +26.64, BA +9.65, CAT +5.28, DIS +6.51 (6.13%) and XLK $93.45 +5.25 (5.95%).
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS 5.49, JPM +3.71, BAC +1.31, MS +1.43, C +4.04 (8.56%), PNC +5.00, AIG +2.52 (9.97%), TRV +1.72, AXP +9.16 (10.39%), V +13.74 (8.02%) and XLF $23.38 +.66 (2.9%).
OIL, $15.06 +2.72. Oil was higher again today and seems to be making a decent show of making an important bottom. Tonight, it is higher again trading 15.95 +.89. The stocks were also much higher with gains of between 6% on the big names and as much as 30% on some of the small ones. XLE closed $39.95 +3.77 (5.63%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,713.40 -8.80. After the recent gains, Gold broke solidly above $1,700 and traded as high as $1788 last Wednesday. We have spent the last 3 days consolidating the gains and hit $1,720 today. I said I wanted to get long the GLD if we can probe the $1710 range, and when it traded $17.04 yesterday I was a buyer. We took the downside move this morning and averaged down @ $1.06, and they closed $1.61. We are also long NEM.
BITCOIN: closed $8825 +1045. After we traded in the uptrend, I mentioned this weekend that I felt we would have to test 6750 and yesterday we hit 6465 before turning back up. Today’s action was a continuing move higher. While I want to add the 350, I still want to wait and see some stabilization. We still own 400 GBTC with an average of $8.06. GBTC closed $9.60 +1.20 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to options [link] [comments]

For Trading July 1st

For Trading JULY 1st
Consumer Confidence Jumps
BA Losing Orders
FEDEX Loss Sends the Stock Up
Best Quarter for DJIA Since Q1 1987
Today’s market got off to a soft start in the DJIA on the loss of several more orders for BA but it didn’t take long to stabilize and work back to unchanged while the NASDAQ & S&P 500 shot to the upside right out of the gate. At the close we were +217.08 (.86%), NASDAQ +184.61 (1.87%), S&P-500 +47.05 (1.54%), the Russell +20.16 (1.42%) and the Transports +120.08 (1.33%). Market internals were 9:5 on the NYSE and 2:1 on the NASDAQ. Volume was a little higher (window dressing) for the close of the quarter and the half. The DJIA was 27:3 with BA the biggest loser -11.19 or 76 DP’s and the gainers were MSFT & UNH +35, HD +30, GS +28 and AAPL +20 DPs. The Powell / Mnuchin visit to the Financial Services committee was a real snore. The statements were released yesterday and there were no surprises. All the Congressmen and women made their little speeches without actually asking any serious questions…so a typical day on the Hill. The consumer confidence # was 98.1 up from 85.9 and well above the 92 expected. Not so the Chicago PMI which went the other way at 36.6, up from 32.3, but well below the 45 estimates.
We added some CVS 7/67.50 calls on the decline with an average price of $1.16 and they finished $ .78, and the NEM 7/17 $60’s @ 1.55 and added to last Friday @ $1.30 for an average of $1.47 triggered a 100% Up Rule sale at $2.94 this morning. They closed today $3.30. We also added a position in SLV 8/21 17 calls @ $ .74, and they closed $ .83.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 1900 members. I also did this video titled “How to survive being an options trader and not blow up your account,” over the long weekend. I think it’s highly informative as a guide to stock selection and option choices. The link is https://youtu.be/Y7H9RpWfLlo Enjoy!!
Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/nCJrwS4bFWE
SECTORS: The news of cancellations by Norwegian Air of 92 737 MAX and 5 787 was followed by another cancellation by BOAC. The stock was +14% yesterday but gave back almost half today. NVDA ran up with the rest of the chip names on the back of last night’s earnings from MU +4.8% and XLNX +7% with a close of $379.91 +11.91 (3.2%) and LCRX $323.46 +15.00 (4.87%). But the start today was TSLA. I will be doing a report over this week-end but the story is from Ark Invests Cathie Wood and she tells a GREAT story for Tesla. The stock finished the day $1079.81 +70.46 (3.2%). From a low of $350 in March, the gain is just under 210%, and the market value of the company has grown to $200 Billion. FEDEX reported after the close and had a loss of $1.28 vs $7.56 year ago and a slight miss on revenues. After missing 3 of the last 3 quarters numbers, expectations were low and after closing $140.22 +5.67, it ran to $153.01 +12.89 for a total gain for the day of almost $20.00 or 15%. Even though UPS has been able to raise prices and pick up some of the AMZN business that FDX dropped last year, FDX seems to be doing okay in e-commerce.
FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN +..34, BGS +.04, FLO +.15, CPB +.40, CAG +1.57, MDLZ +.42, KHC +.24, CALM +.50, JJSF +2.56, HRL -.07, SJM +.73, PPC +.83, KR -.27, and PBJ $31.23 +.36 (1.17%).
BIOPHARMA was HIGHER with BIIB +7.20, ABBV +1.51, REGN +12.78, ISRG +16.06, GILD +2.07, MYL +.09, TEVA +.16, VRTX +5.13, BHC +.06, INCY +1.49, ICPT +.70, LABU +2.75 and IBB $137.00 +2.32 (1.72%). CANNABIS: was LOWER with TLRY -.60, CGC -.19, CRON -.08, GWPH +.80, ACB -.09, CURLF +.11, KERN -.12 and MJ $12.87 -.14 (1.08%).
DEFENSE: was LOWER with LMT -.57, GD +.39, TXT -.67, NOC -2.52, BWXT +.53, TDY +6.17, RTX -.52, and ITA $164.72 -2.52 (1.51%).
RETAIL: was LOWER with M +.30, JWN -.27, KSS -.09, DDS -.36, WMT +.64, TGT +1.43, TJX -.26, RL -.25, UAA -.09, LULU +17.15 (SEE ABOVE), TPR -.15, CPRI -.02, and XRT $42.88 +.17 (.40%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +17.83, AMZN +75.12, AAPL +2.23, FB +5.06, NFLX +6.97, NVDA +10.43, TSLA +65.95 (6.53%), BABA +.09, BIDU -1.41, CMG +3.05, CAT +1.84, BA -13.74, DIS -.13, and XLK $104.49 +1.84 (1.47%).
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +3.78, JPM +.93, BAC +.31, MS +.80, C +.78, PNC +2.17, AIG +.41, TRV +2.10, AXP +.40, V +1.63, and XLF $23.14 +.31 (1.36%).
OIL, $39.81 -43. Oil was lower in last night’s trading before we rallied midday. I mentioned in last night’s charts with comments section in the Weekly Strategies letter, prices are trying to work higher towards $45.00. The stocks were higher with XLE $37.58 +.58 (1.57%).
GOLD $1800.50 +19.3. It was a continuation rally and a new recovery high and the highest close since $1931.70 in August 2011. We’ve moved $50 since the low on Friday and while the trend and momentum are positive, we may have to test 1790 to consolidate our gains. We bought back the 3rd and final lot of NEM @ $58.86. And, we also added a half position in NEM 7/17 60 calls @ $1.55, and additional 50% @ $1.30 on Friday. We sold half on the 100% Up Rule @ $2.94 yesterday and we closed $3.30 +1.18 today.
BITCOIN: closed $9,185 - 15. After trading back to 8985 we rallied back to close – only $5. Since last week we have closed between 9200 – 92.85 every day with narrow ranges. A break over 10,000 still sends us higher. We added 350 shares of GBTC last Wednesday @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97. GBTC closed $9.60 +.12 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to OptionsOnly [link] [comments]

MU and XLNX beat

For Trading JUNE 30TH
Pending Home Sales +44.3% in May
BA Adds 168 Points to the DJIA
MU & XLNX Beat, SPG Reaffirms Div.
We added some CVS 7/67.50 calls on the decline with an average price of $1.16 and they finished $ .66, and the NEM 7/17 $60’s @ 1.55 and added to last Friday @ $1.30 for an average of $1.47 triggered a 100% Up Rule sale at $2.94 this morning. They closed today $2.12.
Today’s market got off to a good start based on the futures, and within the first few minutes started a selloff to the low of the day (+70) and then turned on a dime and started higher again and by 10:00 were had hit +450. We moved sideways to higher until the last 15 minutes we had rallied to a new high and closed +580.25 (2.32%), NASDAQ +116.93 (1.2%), S&P 500 +44.19 (1.47%), the Russell +42.43 (3.08%) and the Transports +246.90 (2.8%). Market internals were good with the NYSE A/D 3:1 and NAZ 2:1, while NYSE A/D volume was better than 5:1. Overall volume was about unchanged from Friday. The DJIA was 29:1 with the biggest mover BA +168 DP’s and the others a far distant AAPL +56, HD +35 and GS 20 DP’s). The Pending Home sales this morning added to the market as soon as it was released. Homebuilders were up anywhere from 3%, (LEN & DHI) to 8.8% (BZH & TOL), and the ETF, XHB finished $43.45 +1.67 (4%).
Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/AeKKwW1lmKw
Our Discord Forum link is in the description..
SECTORS: The news of COVID-19 surges in cases to new highs has caused the states of both Texas and Florida to halt the progression of their re-openings. In fact, both states have closed bars since it is a place for younger people to gather and the 25 -39 group shows the biggest increases in cases. There are states that have seen increases of up to 300% from where they were when the re-openings began. For a look at how ALL the states are doing use this link: https://rt.live/ There were 2 stars in the market today; the obvious brightest star was Boeing (BA) on the strength of it starting FAA piloted flights of the 737 MAX for re-certification. The flights seem to be okay, but the flights are just the tip of the iceberg since all of the data now has to be analyzed. I’m sure it will be a little while before we hear anything substantive, but it was a start after over 440 days of grounding (March 2019). But buyers wouldn’t be stopped after the recent decline from the recovery high of $234 to close $170.01 Friday. The stock opened $181.65 and traded up to $194.50 before closing on the highs at $194.49 +24.48 (14.4%). The second star was FB, embroiled in the cancellation of ads but some of the world’s biggest and best companies due to racist and hate oriented content. Last Tuesday before the advertisers started pulling ads the stock had made a new all-time high at $245 but started lower the next day. On Friday Unilever and KO had pulled (adding to the list of medium sized firms) and the stock fell to $215. This morning Starbucks adding to the list and the stock fell to $207.11 before the market took off (see above) and by 10:45 it had crossed unchanged and kept moving to close $220.64 +4.56 (2.1%) but $13 from the low. We’ll have to see what it can do when it gets to supply between $224-226. Earning from two chip makers both beat, and both gave solid guidance. MU finished $52.11 +2.96 (6%), while XLNX was $98.47 +6.50 (7%). Simon Property Group (SPG) reaffirmed its earnings quoting the fact that 199 of their 204 properties across 37 states are open and operating. They also declared their dividend and added that they expect to pay $6.00 in cash for 2020. The stock had closed $68.13 +6.23 (10%) but rose further in late trading and was $72.52 + $439 or another 6.4%. In the financials, after the close several, (BAC, MS, C, and MS) all affirmed current rates while WFC said it will have to cut their payout. The stock fell about $ .25.
FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN +.97, BGS +.63, FLO +.75, CPB +.85, CAG +1.77, MDLZ +.78, KHC +.81, CALM +.68, JJSF +6.39, SAFM -.64, HRL +.13, SJM +2.07, PPC -.38, KR +1.39, and PBJ $30.87 +.54 (1.81%).
BIOPHARMA was MIXED with BIIB +1.34, ABBV +.16, REGN -.49, ISRG +3.92, GILD +.24, MYL +.12, TEVA -.01, VRTX -.64, BHC -.01, INCY +1.05, ICPT $47.10 -30.39 (39.2%) ON THE FDA HAVING QUESTIONS ABOUT THEIR NASH (LIVER) TREATMENT. IBB was $134.88 -.48 (.36%).
CANNABIS: was MIXED with TLRY -.21, CGC +.55, CRON +.11, GWPH +1.72, ACB -.08, CURLF +.03, KERN +.01 and MJ $13.01 +.19 (1.48%).
DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +11.24, GD +3.29, TXT +1.51, NOC +7.14, BWXT +.91, TDY +5.60, RTX +2.91, and ITA $167.42 +9.04 (5.71%).
RETAIL: was HIGHER with M +.71, JWN +1.21, KSS +2.01, DDS +1.80, WMT +.80, TGT +1.55, TJX +1.47, RL +5.29, UAA +.74, LULU +14.57, TPR +.80, CPRI +1.29, and XRT $42.25 + 1.01 (2.45%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +39.46, AMZN -3.21, AAPL +9.57, FB +4.22, NFLX +4.60, NVDA +6.00, TSLA +46.25, BABA -.11, BIDU -.51, CMG +14.85, CAT +3.61, BA +22.33 (13.2%), DIS +2.90, and XLK $103.19 +1.65 (1.02%).
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +5.81, JPM +1.09, BAC +.28, MS +.56, C +1.26, PNC +2.82, AIG +.97, TRV +1.90, AXP +1.58, V +3.23, and XLF $22.88 +.28 (1.24%).
OIL, $39.70 +1.21. Oil was lower last night trading as low as $37.50 before we rallied well off those levels. I mentioned in last night’s charts with comments section in the Weekly Strategies letter, prices are trying to work higher towards $45.00. The stocks were higher with XLE $37.24 +.74 (2.03%).
GOLD $1781.20 + .90. It was a small pull-back after the strong rally of the end of last week, and after touching $1796 last week we turned back lower and tested $1754 before bursting higher Friday. We bought back the 3rd and final lot of NEM @ $58.86. And, we also added a half position in NEM 7/17 60 calls @ $1.55, and additional 50% @ $1.30 on Friday. We sold half on the 100% Up Rule @ $2.94 yesterday and we closed $2.12 today.
BITCOIN: closed $9,200 -20. After trading back to 8985 we rallied back to close – only $5. Since last week we have closed between 9200 – 92.85 every day with narrow ranges. A break over 10,000 still sends us higher. We added 350 shares of GBTC last Wednesday @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97. GBTC closed $9.48 - .22 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to options [link] [comments]

Murmurs of the Sea | Monthly Portfolio Update - March 2020

Only the sea, murmurous behind the dingy checkerboard of houses, told of the unrest, the precariousness, of all things in this world.
-Albert Camus, The Plague
This is my fortieth portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal.
Portfolio goal
My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars).
This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent.
Portfolio summary
Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $662 776
Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $39 044
Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $74 099
Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $109 500
Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $150 095
Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) – $29 852
Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $197 149
Telstra shares (TLS) – $1 630
Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $7 855
NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $6 156
Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $119 254
Secured physical gold – $19 211
Ratesetter (P2P lending) – $13 106
Bitcoin – $115 330
Raiz* app (Aggressive portfolio) – $15 094
Spaceship Voyager* app (Index portfolio) – $2 303
BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 492
Total portfolio value: $1 566 946 (-$236 479 or -13.1%)
Asset allocation
Australian shares – 40.6% (4.4% under)
Global shares – 22.3%
Emerging markets shares – 2.3%
International small companies – 3.0%
Total international shares – 27.6% (2.4% under)
Total shares – 68.3% (6.7% under)
Total property securities – 0.2% (0.2% over)
Australian bonds – 4.8%
International bonds – 10.4%
Total bonds – 15.2% (0.2% over)
Gold – 8.8%
Bitcoin – 7.4%
Gold and alternatives – 16.2% (6.2% over)
Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio.
Comments
This month saw an extremely rapid collapse in market prices for a broad range of assets across the world, driven by the acceleration of the Coronavirus pandemic.
Broad and simultaneous market falls have resulted in the single largest monthly fall in portfolio value to date of around $236 000.
This represents a fall of 13 per cent across the month, and an overall reduction of more the 16 per cent since the portfolio peak of January.
[Chart]
The monthly fall is over three times more severe than any other fall experienced to date on the journey. Sharpest losses have occurred in Australian equities, however, international shares and bonds have also fallen.
A substantial fall in the Australia dollar has provided some buffer to international equity losses - limiting these to around 8 per cent. Bitcoin has also fallen by 23 per cent. In short, in the period of acute market adjustment - as often occurs - the benefits of diversification have been temporarily muted.
[Chart]
The last monthly update reported results of some initial simplified modelling on the impact of a hypothetical large fall in equity markets on the portfolio.
Currently, the actual asset price falls look to register in between the normal 'bear market', and the more extreme 'Global Financial Crisis Mark II' scenarios modelled. Absent, at least for the immediate phase, is a significant diversification offset - outside of a small (4 per cent) increase in the value of gold.
The continued sharp equity market losses have left the portfolio below its target Australian equity weighting, so contributions this month have been made to Vanguard's Australian shares ETF (VAS). This coming month will see quarterly distributions paid for the A200, VGS and VAS exchange traded funds - totalling around $2700 - meaning a further small opportunity to reinvest following sizeable market falls.
Reviewing the evidence on the history of stock market falls
Vladimir Lenin once remarked that there are decades where nothing happen, and then there are weeks in which decades happen. This month has been four such weeks in a row, from initial market responses to the coronavirus pandemic, to unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy responses aimed at lessening the impact.
Given this, it would be foolish to rule out the potential for other extreme steps that governments have undertaken on multiple occasions before. These could include underwriting of banks and other debt liabilities, effective nationalisation or rescues of critical industries or providers, or even temporary closure of some financial or equity markets.
There is a strong appeal for comforting narratives in this highly fluid investment environment, including concepts such as buying while distress selling appears to be occurring, or delaying investing until issues become 'more clear'.
Nobody can guarantee that investments made now will not be made into cruel short-lived bear market rallies, and no formulas exist that will safely and certainly minimise either further losses, or opportunities forgone. Much financial independence focused advice in the early stages of recent market falls focused on investment commonplaces, with a strong flavour of enthusiasm at the potential for 'buying the dip'.
Yet such commonly repeated truths turn out to be imperfect and conditional in practice. One of the most influential studies of a large sample of historical market falls turns out to provide mixed evidence that buying following a fall reliably pays off. This study (pdf) examines 101 stock market declines across four centuries of data, and finds that:
Even these findings should be viewed as simply indicative. Each crisis and economic phase has its unique character, usually only discernible in retrospect. History, in these cases, should inform around the potential outlines of events that can be considered possible. As the saying goes, risk is what remains after you believe you have thought of everything.
Position fixing - alternative perspectives of progress
In challenging times it can help to keep a steady view of progress from a range of perspectives. Extreme market volatility and large falls can be disquieting for both recent investors and those closer to the end of the journey.
One perspective on what has occurred is that the portfolio has effectively been pushed backwards in time. That is, the portfolio now sits at levels it last occupied in April 2019. Even this perspective has some benefit, highlighting that by this metric all that has been lost is the strong forward progress made in a relatively short time.
Yet each perspective can hide and distort key underlying truths.
As an example, while the overall portfolio is currently valued at around the same dollar value as a year ago, it is not the same portfolio. Through new purchases and reinvestments in this period, many more actual securities (mostly units in ETFs) have been purchased.
The chart below sets out the growth in total units held from January 2019 to this month, across the three major exchange trade funds holdings in the portfolio.
[Chart]
From this it can be seen that the number of securities held - effectively, individual claims on the future earnings of the firms in these indexes - has more than doubled over the past fifteen months. Through this perspective, the accumulation of valuable assets shows a far more constant path.
Though this can help illuminate progress, as a measure it also has limitations. The realities of falls in market values cannot be elided by such devices, and some proportion of those market falls represent initial reassessments of the likely course of future earnings, and therefore the fundamental value of each of those ETF units.
With significant uncertainty over the course of global lock-downs, trade and growth, the basis of these reassessments may provide accurate, or not. For anyone to discount all of these reassessments as wholly the temporary result of irrational panic is to show a remarkable confidence in one's own analytical capacities.
Similarly, it would be equally wrong to extrapolate from market falls to a permanent constraining of the impulse of humanity to innovate, adjust to changed conditions, seek out opportunities and serve others for profit.
Lines of position - Trends in expenditure
A further longer-term perspective regularly reviewed is monthly expenses compared to average distributions.
Monthly expenditure continues to be below average, and is likely to fall further next month as a natural result of a virus-induced reduction of shopping trips, events and outings.
[Chart]
As occurred last month, as a function some previous high distributions gradually falling outside of the data 'window' for the rolling three-year comparison of distributions and expenditure, a downward slope in distributions continues.
Progress
Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below.
Measure Portfolio All Assets Portfolio objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 71.9% 97.7% Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 87.7% 119.2% Total expenses – $89 000 pa 70.2% 95.5%
Summary
This month has been one of the most surprising and volatile of the entire journey, with significant daily movements in portfolio value and historic market developments. There has been more to watch and observe than at any time in living memory.
The dominant sensation has been that of travelling backwards through time, and revisiting a stage of the journey already passed. The progress of the last few months has actually been so rapid, that this backwards travel has felt less like a set back, but rather more like a temporary revisitation of days past.
It is unclear how temporary a revisitation current conditions will enforce, or exactly how this will affect the rest of the journey. In early January I estimated that if equity market fell by 33 per cent through early 2020 with no offsetting gains in other portfolio elements, this could push out the achievement of the target to January 2023.
Even so, experiencing these markets and with more volatility likely, I don't feel there is much value in seeking to rapidly recalculate the path from here, or immediately alter the targeted timeframe. Moving past the portfolio target from here in around a year looks almost impossibly challenging, but time exists to allow this fact to settle. Too many other, more important, human and historical events are still playing out.
In such times, taking diverse perspectives on the same facts is important. This Next Life recently produced this interesting meditation on the future of FIRE during this phase of economic hardship. In addition, the Animal Spirits podcast also provided a thoughtful perspective on current market falls compared to 2008, as does this article by Early Retirement Now. Such analysis, and each passing day, highlights that the murmurs of the sea are louder than ever before, reminding us of the precariousness of all things.
The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
submitted by thefiexpl to fiaustralia [link] [comments]

Cryptocurrency technical analysis: neutral market dynamics before a powerful movement

Cryptocurrency technical analysis: neutral market dynamics before a powerful movement

Cryptocurrency technical analysis: neutral market dynamics before a powerful movement
This week, most stock market assets showed a neutral movement, which did not give investors clear signals about the need to take bull or bear positions. This trend was reflected in the cryptocurrency market. So, bitcoin continues to move below the key level of $10,000 and is unlikely to overcome it in the coming days. At the same time, it is worth noting a number of positive factors for the development of the price dynamics of crypto assets. Experts from one of the largest US banks, JPMorgan, presented a review according to which in March, bitcoin successfully passed its first stress test “mostly positive”. It also became known that the Binance crypto exchange launches quarterly BTC / USD futures contracts with leverage up to 125x, which will be available to users of the Binance Futures platform. This positive news can return to the market bulls that are waiting for signals for a successful entry.

Bitcoin

From the point of view of technical analysis, on a four-hour chart, BTC quotes are preparing for the development of a powerful movement. This is facilitated by going beyond the current consolidation between support at $9150 and resistance at $9500, in the area of which the line of the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) runs. In the future, due to reduced liquidity, traders may begin to open bearish positions provided that bitcoin drops below $9150. In this scenario, BTC can go to targets at $8760 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) and $8330.
A deeper decline is still unlikely, because in case of growth of capitalization of the stock market, part of the funds will be directed to the cryptocurrency market. But in the future months, we can expect quotes to go above the key level of $9500, which will allow Bitcoin to rush up to the target clusters of $9900– $10,000 and further to $10,400– $10,500.

https://preview.redd.it/zk56mog26h751.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=adf137775c35da072775c21acff5ccac26c73fbd
BTC / USD chart, daily timeframe.

Ethereum

Ethereum at the moment broke support at around $233, where the 11.4% Fibonacci retracement line runs, which allowed the altcoin to reach the important mark of $220. The next target for sellers will be the consolidation of $195– $200, below which is the line of the 200-day SMA. From this area, the ether will be ready to resume the upward movement to the first target of $251, overcoming of which will be a key condition for the continued development of the upward impulse. In this case, the goals for Ethereum will be the levels of $280, $300 and $320.

https://preview.redd.it/fd3at9986h751.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=2cb20e04b3cd82649cc762f48b6760ba38d59f7e
Chart ETH / USD, daily timeframe.

Litecoin

Litecoin confidently reached the goal in the form of the upper boundary of the cluster $40– $42. However, further growth attempts are hampered by the 200-day SMA line, which is located at around $45. A strong impulse to sell can send LTC quotes down to the levels of $36 and $30.60.
However, it should be borne in mind that these marks are excellent opportunities for a set of positions for the purchase in the long term. In this case, the first target will be the level of $47.45. By the end of the year, traders will potentially be able to take profits at $52 (38.2% correctional level on the Fibonacci lines), $56.80, $60.80, $65 and $70.

https://preview.redd.it/31jo7rmf6h751.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=cf1d4fef4b8f68c97ba22bd84a56f392a030bd4f
LTC / USD chart, four hour timeframe.

Bitcoin cash

A bitcoin fork moves within the framework of the “Horizontal Channel” with borders of $200– $272. The asset is trying to gain a foothold above the level of $250 and the 200-day SMA line, which has become an important resistance for him. Going below $200 will cause BCH to drop to $170, and a break above $272 will provide an opportunity to take profits at $305, $356 and $400. Now trading Bitcoin Cash in the range of $200– $272 may bring more risk than profit, so the best strategy for conservative investors is to wait for going beyond this consolidation.

https://preview.redd.it/pjwco4ej6h751.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=8a2742d0e16e368335b485c9d135c618bc271d6d
BCH / USDT chart, four hour timeframe.

XRP

XRP further reduced volatility and went down beyond the boundaries of consolidation of $0.2050– $0.2360, which allowed to reach the target of $0.18 in the moment. Closing the daily candle below this mark will allow the bears to send the asset to $0.16 and $0.1470. However, a breakthrough of the $0.2360 level and the 200-day SMA line will allow XRP quotes to rush further to the target levels of $0.2540, $0.27, $0.2860 and $0.30.

https://preview.redd.it/0qainjxl6h751.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=057858229649d84b63611c8fdc78d67b8cb76f17
XRP / USD chart, daily timeframe.

Binance coin

Binance Coin quotes realized the forecast for the development of the downward movement in the region of the lower boundary of the region of $15.30– $16. But bears will need a lot of strength to overcome it, and if successful, they will be able to take profits at $13.80 and $11.50.
But in the long run, from these levels, the restoration of BNB quotes to the first
goals in the form of levels of $17 and $18.14 may begin. This scenario will be realized provided that an important mark of $16 is broken where the 200-day MA line passes. In the perspective of this year, whales may raise the value of the crypto asset of the Binance exchange to the goals of $19.36, $21.30 and $23.50.

https://preview.redd.it/l2devrqo6h751.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=6cff5b3c4d87de03fdd3f27074df500ac761bbb3
BNB / USDT chart, daily timeframe.
Top cryptocurrencies have recently shown a neutral trend, but it will not last long. Indeed, usually this is followed by a powerful movement of the crypto market, so traders should “fasten their seat belts” and prepare for active trading in the coming months.
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Market Takes a Rest

For Trading JUNE 18th
Housing Permits +14.4%
Market Takes a Rest
Small-caps Lead the Way, Lower
Today’s market was a real snore with action contained in a short range until the last hour when the boredom turned to some selling. We finished a narrow, short-range day -170.37 (.65%), NASDAQ +14.66 (.15%), S&P 500 -11.25 (.36%), the Russell -25.73 (1.77%) leading the way after several days of outperformance on the upside. Market internals were unremarkable with NYSE A/D 2:1 lower, NASDAQ 3:2 and NYSE volume 3:1 down. Stronger sectors were consumer discretionary, information technology and communication services with energy, financials and real estate weakest. Concerns about rising Covid-19 spikes in several states and especially the resurgence in Beijing weighed on investors minds. In China 400,000 were tested with only 437 positives but the concern centered around the fact that there were several “clusters” showing up in outlying areas and seem to be centered around a wholesale fish and meat market and imported salmon. The city alert status was raised, and all schools were closed, with officials saying that they may not be reopened until February. DJIA stocks were 22 down, 7 up and WBA unchanged. The biggest losers were BA-37, GS-24, JPM-18, and CAT & AXP-12. Only HD +6 added even a whole number with the rest up just fractions.
We had 1 carryover trade, long CVS 6/26 $64 and we sold those late in the day for a profit and the NEM 7/17 $60’s @ 1.55 that finished the [email protected] $1.43. I am looking for a decline to add to that position.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 1900 members. I also did this video titled “How to survive being an options trader and not blow up your account,” over the long weekend. I think it’s very informative as a guide to stock selection and option choices. The link is https://youtu.be/Y7H9RpWfLlo Enjoy!!
Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/yd6oIc97r_A SECTORS: We had a continuation of the selloff in CHK again today. The stock, a 1:200 reverse split that traded over $77 just 8 short days ago continued to fall today trading $12.75 and closing $13.24 -2.12 (13.8%) for an 8-day decline of 83.4% in that period. We also saw a selloff in Urban-One (UONE) which rose from $1.54 to $40 this week falling back to close $12.71 -14.48 (53.25%)…easy come, easy go! Hertz (HTZ) was back in the news today with a mid-morning trading halt “for news pending.” Later in the day the SEC said that they had informed the company that they had questions and concerns about the company issuing $500,000,000 worth of stock. The bankrupt auto rental company then cancelled the offering. More to follow, I’m sure. And, the HOMERUN OF THE DAY, was a new name, but the same story, no news but a dramatic rise. Carver Bancorp (CARV) which I reported on in this morning’s pre-open comment was trading $14.00 +12.00 managed to trade as high as $22.97 but coming back to earth and closing $8.39 +5.98 or 248.13%). No news except the trading halt, trading resumed notifications.
FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN -1.64, BGS -.02, FLO +.10, CAG +.05, MDLZ -.02, KHC +.07, CALM -.90, JJSF -1.18, SAFM +.06, LANC -.08, GO+1.28, HRL +.21, SJM +.91, PPC -.29 and PBJ $31.21 +.12 (.39%).
BIOPHARMA was HIGHER with BIIB -.66, ABBV -.34, REGN +10.20, ISRG +3.42, GILD -.64, MYL -.15, TEVA -.10, VRTX +6.32, BHC +.42, INCY +.04, ICPT +.03, LABU +.10 and IBB $134.00 +1.67 (1.26%).
CANNABIS: was LOWER with TLRY -.15, CGC -.85, CRON -.16, GWPH +.70, ACB -.11, PYX being dropped for bankruptcy, NBEV +.04, CURLF +.14, KERN -.92 and MJ $13.65 -.20 (1.44%).
DEFENSE: was LOWER with LMT -.57, GD +1.26, TXT -.39, NOC -2.45, BWXT +.30, TDY -5.88, RTX -1.12, and ITA $173.03 -2.31 (1.32%).
RETAIL was LOWER with M -.49, JWN -1.10, KSS -1.35, DDS -1.29, WMT -.58, TGT -.96, TJX -1.03, RL -1.94, UAA -.44, LULU -6.92, TPR -.69, CPRI -1.63, and XRT $42.69 -.37 (.85%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were MIXED with GOOGL +6.94, AMZN +25.57, AAPL .88, FB -.34, NFLX +12.12, NVDA +6.26, TSLA +6.93, BABA +1.38, BIDU -.78, CMG -13.60, CAT -1.61, BA -6.62, and XLK $102.30 -.21 (.20%).
FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS -3.69, JPM -3.06, BAC -.88, C -1.57, PNC -3.72, AIG -.71, AXP -1.92, V +.38 and XLF $24.12 -.42 (1.71%).
OIL, $37.96 -.42. Oil was under pressure all day with not much of a range finished the day near the lows of a short-range day. The stocks were all lower with XLE $39.59 -1.50 (3.65%).8%).
GOLD $1735.60 -.90. It was another short-range day closing in the middle of the range. The yellow metal is unchanged tonight. We bought back the 3rd and final lot of NEM @ $58.86. And, we also added a half position in NEM 7/17 60 calls @ $1.55, which closed $1.43.
BITCOIN: closed $9,325 -205. After trading another short-range day we finished mid-range and slightly higher. We added 350 shares of GBTC last Wednesday @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97. GBTC closed $10.73 -.17 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
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New Lands, or New Eyes? | Monthly FIRE Portfolio Update - April 2020

The real voyage of discovery consists not in seeking new landscapes, but in having new eyes.
- Marcel Proust, Remembrance of Things Past
This is my forty-first portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal.
Portfolio goal
My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars).
This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent.
Portfolio summary
Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $697 582
Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $40 709
Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $76 583
Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $110 563
Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $174 864
Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) – $31 505
Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $215 805
Telstra shares (TLS) – $1 625
Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $7 323
NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $5 904
Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $119 458
Secured physical gold – $19 269
Ratesetter (P2P lending) – $12 234
Bitcoin – $158 360
Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio) – $16 144
Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio) – $2 435
BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 471
Total portfolio value: $1 694 834 (+$127 888 or 8.2%)
Asset allocation
Australian shares – 40.9% (4.1% under)
Global shares – 21.7%
Emerging markets shares – 2.2%
International small companies – 3.0%
Total international shares – 26.9% (3.1% under)
Total shares – 67.8% (7.2% under)
Total property securities – 0.3% (0.3% over)
Australian bonds – 4.5%
International bonds – 9.9%
Total bonds – 14.4% (0.6% under)
Gold – 8.2%
Bitcoin – 9.3%
Gold and alternatives – 17.5% (7.5% over)
Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio.
Comments
This month featured a sharp recovery in the overall portfolio, reducing the size of the large losses experienced over the previous month.
The portfolio increased by over $127 000, representing a growth of 8.2 per cent, which is the largest month-on-month growth on record. This now puts the portfolio value significantly above the levels of a year ago.
[Chart]
The expansion in the value of the portfolio has occurred due to an increase in Australian and global equities markets, as well as substantial increases the price of Bitcoin. This is effectively the mirror image of the simultaneous negative movements last month.
From a nadir of initial pessimism in late March, markets have generally moved upwards as debate continues about the path of a likely economic recession and recovery from Coronavirus impacts over the coming year.
[Chart]
First quarter distributions from the Australian and Global Shares ETFs (A200, VAS and VGS) were received this month. These were too early to fully reflect the sharp economic activity impacts of the Coronavirus and lockdown period on company earnings.
Despite this, they were significantly down on a cents per unit basis on the equivalent distributions last year. Totalling around $2700, these distributions formed part of new contributions to Vanguard's Australian shares ETF (VAS).
The rapid falls in equity have many participants looking forward to a return to normalcy, or at least more open to the pleasing ideas that nerves have been held in a market fall comparable to 2000 or 2008-09, and that markets now represent clear value. As discussed last month, there should be caution and some humility about these questions, if some historical perspective is taken. As an example, the largest global equity market in the world - the United States - remains at valuation levels well above those experienced in previous market lows.
Portfolio alternatives - tracking changes under the surface
A striking feature of the past year or so has been the expansion of the non-traditional or 'alternatives' components of gold and Bitcoin as a proportion of the overall portfolio. Currently, when combined these alternative assets form a greater part of the portfolio than at any point over the past two years.
The chart below shows that since January 2019 the gold and Bitcoin component of the portfolio has lifted from around its long term target level of 10 per cent, to now make up over 17 per cent of the portfolio. In the space of the last four months alone, it has lifted from 13 per cent.
[Chart]
With no purchases of either gold or Bitcoin over the period, the growth in the chart is the result of two reinforcing factors:
A substantial fall in the value of the equity portfolio - reaching nearly $200 000 since the recent February market peak has naturally and mathematically led to a commensurate increase the proportion of other assets.
Increases in the value of gold and Bitcoin - have also played a role with a total appreciation of around $150 000 across the two assets over the past 16 months.
In fact, the value gold holdings alone have increased by over 40 per cent since January last year. Further appreciation of either gold or Bitcoin prices, particularly if any further falls in equity markets occur, could easily place the portfolio in the same position as experienced in January 2018.
At that time these alternative assets made up 1 in every 5 dollars of the portfolio, an unusual, and in that case temporary phenomenon. This represents a different portfolio and risk exposure than that envisaged in my portfolio investment plan.
Yet, equally it is critical to recall what the circumstances would likely be for this to arise. Simultaneously high gold and Bitcoin prices are more likely to occur in a situation of severe capital market dislocation, or falling confidence. On the other hand, should confidence and equity market growth be restored, both of these portfolio components could fall back to lower levels.
It is difficult to tell which state of the world will eventuate, a key reason for diversification across asset types. United States government debt is already at record levels - equivalent in real terms to levels last seen when it emerged out of the Second World War - despite no similar national effort having being undertaken.
Future inflation can potentially partly manage this burden, however, the last sustained episode of persistently high inflation rates during the decade of the 1970s spelt negative real returns. Where investors expect future inflation or financially 'repressive' policies of inflation exceeding interest rates, the economic growth required to 'grow out' of debt can be affected.
At this point, my inclination is to address this circumstance gradually through time by re-balancing of distributions and new contributions, rather than to realise capital gains by selling assets at one, or several, points in time.
Chasing down the lines - falling average spending in lockdown
Since the implementation of lockdown restrictions, average credit card expenditure has fallen by nearly 30 per cent. This has taken credit card expenditure to lower than any similar period in the past six years.
Partly as a result of this - as the chart below shows - a new development is occurring. The previously fairly steady card expenses line (red) is now starting to bend down towards, or 'chase', the rolling average distributions line (in blue).
[Chart]
The declining distributions line is a result of some previous high distributions gradually falling outside of the data 'window' for the rolling three-year comparison of distributions and expenditure.
This intriguing picture will probably change before a cross-over occurs, as lockdown restrictions ease, and as the data feeding into the three year average slowly changes over time.
Progress
Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below.
Measure Portfolio All Assets
Portfolio objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 77.7% 104.6%
Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 94.8% 127.6%
Total expenses – $89 000 pa 76.0% 102.3%
Summary
Last month market volatility theoretically took progress down to below most of my financial independence benchmarks on an 'All Assets' (i.e. portfolio and superannuation assets) basis. This position has reversed this month. As markets have recovered and with additional spare time in the lockdown period, I have continued to seek out and think about different perspectives on the history and future of markets.
Yet it must be recognised that there is a natural limit to the utility of these ponderings. The shape of the future is always uncertain, and in this world, confident comparisons and analogies with past events can be perilous. Comparisons with past periods of financial market crises miss the centrality of government action as a causal influence on the path of virus affected economies and markets.
A virus and recovery is not the same as a global financial crisis originating in housing finance markets addressed through monetary and fiscal stimulus. Most developed country governments have quickly applied the same, if not larger versions of responses as applied in the global financial crisis, a distinguishing step that also makes analogies with the great depression era problematic.
Similarly, a pandemic is not hitting and interacting with the shattered economic and health systems of the 1918-19 Spanish flu. Overlaying all of this is the imperfect and partially disconnected relationship between the economy today, and equity markets that discount and focus on the future.
This makes all history's lessons more than usually caveated and conditional. One avenue for managing through these times is to focus on what does not change - the psychological difficulty of accepting alterations in financial circumstances and the capacity of markets movements to cruelly surprise us in both timing and direction.
One of the best texts to read to get a sense of both of these in such times is Benjamin Roth's A Great Depression Diary. This tells of the day-by-day changes observed in everyday urban life and investment markets, from the point of view of an American small retail investor living through the times.
This month also saw the exciting news that Pat the Shuffler and Strong Money Australia are combining efforts to produce a new podcast. Speaking of which, Big ERN's reflections on the current implications of sharemarket market movements for seekers of financial independence have been filled with insight and wisdom.
This interesting piece (video) - the latest in a 'virus' market series - from New York University's Professor of Finance Aswath Damodaran on asset performances through the past few months - is a more technical and detailed discussion of how markets have re-priced businesses and profits. Finally, the recently released Hmmminar interview series provides a more heterodox set of speakers and ideas on current markets, presented by Grant Williams.
Unlike predicting the future, seeking out different perspectives on it is perhaps the easiest it has ever been in history. While it is not always possible to change the course taken, it is possible to look at the same horizon with new eyes.
The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
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Astounding, Amazing!

For Trading JUNE 9th
NASDAQ at New High, S&P + For Year
U.S. DOLLAR CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
Today’s market was just another day dominated by a single stock, at least initially, and BA was its name. Early in the day, when the NASDAQ was due lower, BA had added almost $200 DP’s to the average and after a while the rest of them got pulled along. At the end of the day, the DJIA was +461.46 (1.7%), NASDAQ +110.67 (1.13%), S&P-500 +38.46 (1.2%), the Russell +29.74 (1.97%) and the DJ Transports +179.89 (1.82%). Market internals were strong with NYSE A/D 4:1 while NASDAQ lagged 2.6:1 while volume was higher. The DJIA was 25 up /5 down with BA adding $173 DP’s and the next highest gainer was MCD +38. There were no other major movers, but BA is up another $7.00 in late trading. All 11 S&P sectors were higher with energy, real estate, utilities, and industrials while the least up were materials and technology.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 1900 members. I also did this video titled “How to survive being an options trader and not blow up your account,” over the long weekend. I think it’s very informative as a guide to stock selection and option choices. The link is https://youtu.be/Y7H9RpWfLlo Enjoy!!
Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/jkbGKvNZ2FM
SECTORS: The big news was no news initially with BA piggy backing on all of the airline and hospitality stocks recent recovery and the planned reopening of the American economy. BA was trading up about $17 pre-open but by the time the bell actually rang it opened that 17 and immediately added to those gains and by the end of the day it had traded $234.20 and finished +25.07 (12.2%). But it wasn’t done there, in afterhours trading it touched 238.50 and is currently only .01 off that price. Last Monday it had traded $144 and has gone on a 6-day tear of $95 or 66%. And that doesn’t take into account that on its recent decline it went from a high of 446 to a low of 89, so at today’s close we are up 170% since late March.
But, the most amazing thing about today’s moves were the fact that at least one company, HTZ, has actually declared bankruptcy and after trading $ .40 just 10 days ago after the filing, it started at $.80 last Thursday and today managed to close $5.53 +2.96 (115%) and is currently trading $6.70 +1.17 in after hours. Yes, I did say it declared bankruptcy, and yes there are those who will speculate on just about anything, but $6.70 is a touch pricey when 99% of bankruptcies end with the equity owners being wiped out!
And, last, I would have thought that this one was the HOMERUN of the DAY this morning when I talked about it pre-open, ENOB, Enochian Biosciences, when the news of their cure for HIV was the topic of discussion. I had it $17.00 +12.88 or 312%, but the best it could do was to open $12.67, hit $13.43 and then start to slide. It finished $6.06 +1.94 (47%) and is a few cents lower in afterhours. With today’s action in hospitality and Oil related names it probably doesn’t make the top 50 stocks with that gain.
FOOD SUPPLY: was HIGHER with TSN +1.65, FLO +.45, CAG +.51, MDLZ +1.08, KHC +1.03, CALM +.37, JJSF +3.49, SAFM +6.57, LANC +2.42, GO -1.33, HRL +.11, SJM +3.73, PPC +1.99 and PBJ $32.14 +.51 (1.61%).
BIOPHARMA was HIGHER with BIIB -5.46, ABBV +.75, REGN +7.04, ISRG -.06, GILD +.32, MYL +1.22, TEVA +.06, VRTX -.68, BHC +1.26, INCY +1.07, ICPT +4.40, LABU +2.65 and IBB $133.20 +1.85 (1.41%).
CANNABIS: was HIGHER with TLRY +1.16, CGC +1.49, CRON +1.45, GWPH +2.98, ACB +2.01, PYX +1.40, NBEV +.33, CURLF +.13, KERN +2.04 and MJ $15.27 +1.23 (8.76%).
DEFENSE was HIGHER with LMT + 3.75, GD +5.53, TXT +1.43, NOC +4.90, BWXT +2.73, TDY +3.44, RTX +2.35 and ITA $193.84 +6.97 (3.73%).
RETAIL was HIGHER with M +2.17 +24.74%) on the news that it raised $4.5billion in financing, JWN +1.34, KSS +3.42, DDS +2.11, WMT -.49, TGT +.84, TJX +.49, RL +.69, UAA +.78, LULU -4.72, TPR +.72, CPRI +2.43 and XRT $45.35 +1.00 (2.25%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +8.48, AMZN +43.00 (1.73%) on news of a new high price target of $3,300, the highest on the street, AAPL +1.30, FB -.03, NFLX -3.60, NVDA -5.70, TSLA +58.84 (6.64%), BABA -.61, BIDU +2.62, CMG -5.71, CAT +2.60, BA +33.99 (16.55%), DIS +2.39, and XLK $101.92 +.51 (.50%).
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +2.39, JPM +2.40, BAC +.52, MS +.63, C +3.13, PNC +2.97, AIG +3.14, TRV +3.14, AXP +3.67, V +.29, and XLF $26.74 +.50 (1.91%).
OIL, $38.19 -1.36. Oil has managed to trade $40.44 today and fell back to the 5-day MA and closed there. We are trading up about .50 tonight and the stocks didn’t even blink at the decline. In fact, people came after every little depressed stock and many have moved several 100% in the past few days. The stocks were higher and XLE was $47.39 +2.55 (5.69%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,705.10 +22.10. After trading down to $1671 last week we had a bounce higher today and although it was an “inside-day” we closed at the highs. The action in the US$ is projecting higher prices for the metals, but it does not necessarily trade with the dollar on a day by day basis. Support is around Friday’s lows. We bought back the 3rd and final lot of NEM yesterday @ $58.86.
BITCOIN: closed $9,780 -20. After breaking down from just over 10,000 and trading as low as 8630 last Tuesday we have been clawing our way back toward 10,000. Last week we traded over $10500 but fell all the way back to the lows, but we’ve moved back toward $10,000. We added 350 shares of GBTC last Wednesday @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97. GBTC closed $11.58 + .33 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
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Retail Sales up 17%

For Trading JUNE 17th
Retail Sales +17.7%
Market Continues Higher
Smallcaps Lead the Way, Again!
Today’s market was strong from the start with Europe higher on our reversal and some good economic numbers. Retail sales were much higher than expected at +17.7% v 7.7% expected, industrial production was a little soft, but everyone ignored that, capacity utilization was 64.8% v. 64 exp, homebuilders and NAHB were both blowouts, and the White House came to the table with a $1 trillion infrastructure plan. That took us +800 at the open and while there was some weakness as Chairman Powell answered questions for the Senate, we rallied back and finished the day +526.82 (2.04%), NASDAQ +169.75 (1.75%), S&P 500 +58.15 (1.9%), the Russell +32.65 (2.3%) and the DJ Transports +99.55 (1.09%). Market internals were strong with NYSE 4.5:1, NASDAQ 3:1 and NYSE volume also 4.5:1. All 30 DJIA names were higher with AAPL the big winner +62, HD +60, UNH and BA both 46 and CAT +44 DPs. All 11 S&P sectors were higher. Leading the charge was Energy, materials, healthcare, Info tech and consumer discretionary.
We had 1 carryover trad, long CVS 6/26 $64 calls bought yesterday @ $1.25 that were partially sold at $2.50, and $2.90 leaving only a few @ 2.47 close, and we also bought some NEM 7/17 $60’s @ 1.55 that finished the [email protected] $1.53. A good day all around.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 1900 members. I also did this video titled “How to survive being an options trader and not blow up your account,” over the long weekend. I think it’s very informative as a guide to stock selection and option choices. The link is https://youtu.be/Y7H9RpWfLlo Enjoy!!
Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/_qlygqW_hxs
SECTORS: As mentioned above we had a solid report for same store sales from MCD, but the stock, @193 at the open fell back to 187.50 before closing 190.32 +.83. We also had some soft numbers from ORCL after the stock had closed $54.59 +1.34 with a beat of $ .04 on the earnings side but disappointing revenues and it fell back to $51.70 -3.89 in after hours. Also, after the close NCLH reported extending sailing cancellations well into the fall, and after it had rallied from yesterday morning’s low to close $20.69 +97, it fell back to $18.25 -2.44. This also took CCL and RCL lower on the day. And CHK, after a post 1:200 reverse split high of $77.50 just last Monday is again talking bankruptcy and fell to close $15.36 -3.51 (18.6%). And, the HOMERUN OF THE DAY, just yesterday, URBAN-ONE (UONE) had no discernable news again, except a series of over 20 trading halts for volatility and resumed notifications and after being up 255% yesterday continued to hit a high of $40, and closing $27.19 +20.65 315.75%. The company is listed as a TV / Radio broadcast stock.
FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN +2.04, BGS +.13, FLO +.23, CAG +.92, MDLZ +1.42, KHC +.58, CALM +.30, JJSF +2.12, SAFM +.49, LANC -1.96, GO +1.55, HRL +.71, SJM +2.15, PPC +.18 and PBJ #31.09 +.47 (1.53%).
BIOPHARMA was HIGHER with BIIB +4.01, ABBV +3.07, REGN +2.33, ISRG +3.97, GILD +.88, TEVA +.57, VRTX +6.23, BHC +1.39, INCY +2.02, ICPT +1.25, LABU +2.12, and IBB $132.33 +1.83 (1.40%).
CANNABIS: was MIXED with TLRY -.24, CGC +.93, CRON +.21, GWPH +2.73, ACB -.31, PYX -.88, NBEV +.03, CURLF -.01, KERN -.32, and MJ $13.85 +.25 (1.84%).
DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +11.72, GD +3.90, TXT +.88, NOC +12.23, BWXT +.61, TDY +2.85, RTX +1.05, and ITA $175.34 +3.29 (1.91%).
RETAIL was HIGHER with M +.37, JWN +2.18, KSS +1.79, DDS +2.51, WMT +1.70, TGT +1.10, TJX +3.40, RL +2.68, UAA +.43, LULU +7.45, TPR +.63, CPRI +1.23 and XRT $43.06 +1.23 (2.94%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +32.31, AMZN +50.32, AAPL +9.76, FB +3.69, NFLX +10.98, NVDA -3.57, TSLA -11.90, BABA +6.42, BIDU +6.18, CMG +8.55, CAT +7.76, BA +3.50, DIS +1.88, and XLK $102.51 +2.14 (2.13%).
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +4.97, JPM +.71, BAC +.58, MS +1.00, C +1.22, PNC +2.02, AIG -.14, TRV +1.72, AXP +2.05, V +2.01 and XLF $24.54 +.38 (1.57%).
OIL, $3738.38 +1.26. Oil was under pressure early but turned up and finished the day near the high of the day. The stocks were higher with XLE $41.09 +1.15 (2.88%).
GOLD $1737.50 +9.30. It was another short-range day closing in the middle of the range. The yellow metal is unchanged tonight. We bought back the 3rd and final lot of NEM @ $58.86. And, we also added a half position in NEM 7/17 60 calls @ $1.55.
BITCOIN: closed $9,530 + 90. After trading another short-range day we finished mid-range and slightly higher. We added 350 shares of GBTC last Wednesday @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97. GBTC closed $10.91 + .02 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
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For Trading April 15th

For Trading April 15th
Stocks Rally on “Not Terrible” Bank Earnings
Oil Fails Again, Trades Sub-$20.00
Today was a winner from last night’s futures action and the “Less than feared” reports from JPM and WFC. It didn’t take long for those two to reverse and head lower. This market cares absolutely nothing for the reality of the current situation. We have a president who thinks he’s a king and will do whatever he wants, whenever he wants and will reopen the economy on command. His base may believe that, but it is 180 degrees opposite of what the science says. The DJIA finished +558.99 (2.39%), NASDAQ +323.32 (3.96%), S&P 500 +84.43 (3.06%), the Russell +25.29 (2.09%) and the DJ Transports +140.77 (1.75%, again a laggard). The DJIA was 24:6 Up on the day with AAPL the big gainer +94 DPs, followed by HD +59, MSFT +56, UNH +47, and JNJ as standout who provided forward guidance and went against the trend and raised their dividend. BA was the big loser on news that it had 150 orders 737MAX cancelled and fell 43 DPs with JPM and AXP also losers. BTW, just an aside, there were 21 splits listed for the balance of April, ALL OF THE REVERSES. These included several of the leveraged ETF names but also included Chesapeake Energy (CHK) with a 1:200 in order to stay on the NYSE. Market internals were about average with NYSE A/D 3:1 and NADSAQ 2.4:1. Volume was a touch below average. Consumer discretionary and information tech were strong with financials and energy weak.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 1900 members. I also did this video titled “How to survive being an options trader and not blow up your account,” over the long weekend. I think it’s very informative as a guide to stock selection and option choices. The link is https://youtu.be/Y7H9RpWfLlo Enjoy!!
Tonight’s closing comment video (new equipment) https://youtu.be/vK9cZB5oYu0 SECTORS: The FAANG names were strong across the board (see below) and bonds were mostly unchanged to a touch lower. On the small cap biopharma group, which has a new name popping up every day we had Sonnet Bio (SONN) another one of those wonderful reverses (1:10 and 1:26) trading $10.80 +5.86 preopen and followed by a run to $16.20 before finishing the day $7.99 +3.05 (61.74%) with no news except “trading halted, trading resumed. MEI Pharma (MEIP) had good news in the receipt of $100MM payment and for its oral, once a day drug for “B-cell malignancies.” I may be entitled to up to $582MM based on successful development. The stock traded 2.91 +1.24 (74.8%) preopen and continued to open $3.05, trade up to $3.64 but selloff a bit to close $2.50 +.83 (49.7%). Last in this group, RedHill Biopharma (RDHL) updated its progress with its drug, Opaganib, approved for compassionate use in Italy and Israel. The COVID-19 treatment has been very successful. In Israel, the treatment of just 2 patients demonstrated “measurable clinical improvement within days of treatment initiation.” Patients needed decreased oxygen requirements, decreased C-reactive protein (CRP) levels and increased lymphocyte levels. One patient was treated in the ICU, considered for intubation and was released within days of treatment. Although it traded as high as $22.22 in late 2015, it has not been reversed, it traded as low as $3.26 in March and worked its way higher and broke to the upside Monday 4/6 over $5.50 and has continued higher. It closed today $7.51 +.63 (9.16%) after hitting $8.24. So, not a one-day wonder, it has moved from $3.26 to $7.51 over the last 2 weeks.
Last was ROKU reporting a big gain in revenues this morning. This Lotto tick from $15 in 2017 to trade $176.55 in (9/19) fell back to $58.22 in March finishing the day $106.53 +9.97 (10.33%), almost doubling in just under a month.
BIOPHARMA: was HIGHER with BIIB +10.82, ABBV +2.88, REGN +7.82, ISRG +20.46 (4.14%), MYL +.29, TEVA +.30, VRTX +12.22 (4.84%), INCY +3.27, ICPT +3.29 LABU +3.10 (11.41%) and IBB $118.55 +4.06 (3.55%).
CANNABIS: This group was HIGHER with TLRY +.51, CGC +1.02, CRON +.22, GWPH +1.27, ACB - .004, PYX +.16, NBEV +.39, CURLF +.06, KERN +.10 and MJ $11.70 +.25 (2.18%).
DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +15.04, RTX +3.91, GD +1.90, TXT +.06, NOC +9.94, BWXT +.65, TDY +6.27, and ITA $154.67 +4.04 (2.68%).
RETAIL: was HIGHER with M +.02, JWN -.39, KSS +.24, DDS -1.16, JCP -.01, WMT +3.79, TGT +3.70, TJX +2.37, RL +.53, UAA +.41, LULU +5.93, TPR +.61, CPRI +1.38 (10.58%), and XRT $34.75 +1.47 (4.42%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with several big moves vs. the overall market, with GOOGL +54.59, AMZN +116.13 (5.35%), AAPL +14.15 (5.18%), FB +3.42, NFLX +15.51, NVDA +14.64 (5.43%), TSLA +61.70 (9.48%), BABA +5.74, BIDU +2.98, BA -6.33, CAT +2.71, DIS +2.60 and XLK $89.10 +3.71 (4.34%).
FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS -1.73, JPM -2.36, BAC -.14, MS +.29, C -1.53, PNC -1.46, AIG +.15, TRV +3.57, AXP -1.94, and XLF $22.75 +.22 (.98%).
OIL, $20.11 -2.30. Oil was lower overnight and by the NY open this morning the best it could do was $21.92 -39 and started lower until it fell in the late afternoon to trade 19.95 before a small rally to close just over $20.00. Tonight, it is up $ .75. Tonight’s closing comment on the front page discusses this situation and the position we took in SCO. Stocks were lower with the XLE $38.80 unchanged. This is a video update I made midday. https://youtu.be/40obqKxYVek
METALS, GOLD: $1,768.90 +7.50. After the recent gains, Gold broke solidly above $1,700 and traded as high as $1788 today. Today was a major move to the upside and the close is the highest since September 2012 and sets up a move towards the highs at $1,800 from 2011.
BITCOIN: closed $6950 +140. After we traded in the uptrend, I mentioned this weekend that I felt we’d have to test 67.50 and today we hit 6550 before turning back up. While I want to add the 350 sold just over a week ago, I want to wait and see some stabilization. We still own 400 GBTC with an average of $8.06. GBTC closed $7.30 +.05 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
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For Trading May 20th

DJIA Rally Falters
POWELL & Mnuchin Visit the Hill
Today’s market was slightly stronger, and we started the day with the Housing starts and permits, and they really didn’t have much effect since they were lower, but just about as expected. Permits were actually -20.8% but better than 27.6 from last month. After being down around 200 by 10:00AM, we fought back up to just slightly over unchanged and stayed around that level until 3:00 when we broke to the downside for good. The DJIA finished -390.51 (1.59%), NASDAQ -49.73 (.54%), S&P 500 -30.97 (1.05, the Russell -25.96 (1.96% and the DJ Transports -93.93 (1.13%). Market internals were nothing special with A/D 1.7:1 on the NYSE and 1.9:1 on the NAZ. Volume was a bit light and the weakest sectors were Energy, financial and real estate. The DJIA was 3 up and 27 down with the biggest losers being HD -50, BA -34, UNH -30, GS -26, and PG -25 DP’s.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 1900 members. I also did this video titled “How to survive being an options trader and not blow up your account,” over the long weekend. I think it’s very informative as a guide to stock selection and option choices. The link is https://youtu.be/Y7H9RpWfLlo Enjoy!!
Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/pgkZIcywPX8
SECTORS: The news was Housing starts and permits that were no surprise, but we also had earnings from WMT. The retailer beat expectations and when I did my Pre-open comment the stock was actually trading $132.60 +4.94 (3.9%) in the pre-market trading session. The stock never came close to that number opening $131.60 and falling back to close $124.95 -2.71 (2.12%). HD also reported but it was a miss that was blamed on COVID-19 related expenses had weighed on profits. The stock gapped down to open $240.45 and then traded to $237.80 and closed $238.10 -7.25 (2.95). In retail, KSS also reported, and while WMT turned out to be a disappointment, KSS didn’t have the option to be open, and it showed. After the numbers, they suspended the dividend and said they were replacing several brands in favor of more women’s activewear.
FOOD SUPPLY: was LOWER with TSN -2.02, BGS -.29, FLO -.11, CAG -.75, MDLZ -1.07, KHC -.92, CALM -1.31, JJSF -3.78, SAFM -8.00 (5.63%), LANC -2.56, GO unchanged and PBJ $30.72 -.43 (1.39%).
BIOPHARMA was LOWER with BIIB -5.80, ABBV -.42, REGN +.71, ISRG -7.14, GILD -2.28, MYL -.39, TEVA +.25, VRTX -1.63, BHC +.34, INCY -1.54, ICPT +.92, LABU -4.40 (8.47%) and IBB $130.68 -3.10 (2.32%).
CANNABIS: This group was MIXED with TLRY +.16, CGC +.98, CRON +.03, GWPH +2.05, ACB -2.23, PYX -.74 (26.06%), NBEV +.04, CURLF -.87 (13.36%), KERN +.49, and MJ $12.66 -.28 (2.16%).
DEFENSE: was LOWER with LMT -5.94, GD -3.29, TXT -.70, NOC -3.17, BWXT -.32, TDY -2.35, RTX +.25 and ITA $149.14 -2.24 (1.48%).
RETAIL was LOWER with M -.30, JWN -.62, KSS -1.41 (7.48%), DDS -1.18, DELETING JCP AS OF TONIGHT, WMT -2.41 see above, TGT -1.36, TJX +.74, RL -.66, UAA -.28, LULU -3.67, TPR -.62, CPRI -.88 and XRT $38.04 -.48 (1.25%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were MIXED with GOOGL -11.17, AMZN +28.54, AAPL -.42, FB +5.16, NFLX -.66, NVDA +5.46, TSLA -2.53, BABA +2.47, BIDU +2.01, CMG +10.72, CAT -2.02, BA -4.24, DIS -1.85 and XLK $95.41 -.35 (.37%).
FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS -3.36, JPM -1.53, BAC -.62, MS -.82, C -1.10, PNC -2.56, AIG -.76, TRV -1.30, AXP -.76, V -.99, and XLF $21.59 -.54 (2.44%).
OIL, $31.96 +.31. Oil was higher today with the close right on the falling 50-day moving average. I thought that the most recent downside break occurred from just under $29.00 and may stop this move too, but as we saw, it went right through that level. All the stocks on my list were lower with XLE $37.84 -1.09 (2.8%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,745.60 + 11.20. After breaking the downtrend line around $1727 we came all the way back to test it this morning, before we continued higher and closing strong.
BITCOIN: closed $9,680 -65. After breaking out over $7500 we have moved as high as just over $10,000 before gapping down overnight to trade as low as $8,400 earlier this week. We continue to recover higher prices and today broke above the $10030 close from which we gapped down on Monday. We added 350 shares of GBTC Wednesday @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97. GBTC closed $11.38 -.03 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
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For Trading July 1st

For Trading JULY 1st
Consumer Confidence Jumps
BA Losing Orders
FEDEX Loss Sends the Stock Up
Best Quarter for DJIA Since Q1 1987
We added some CVS 7/67.50 calls on the decline the last couple days with an average price of $1.16 and they finished $ .78, and the NEM 7/17 $60’s @ 1.55 we added to last Friday @ $1.30 for an average of $1.47 triggered a 100% Up Rule sale at $2.94 this morning. They closed today $3.30. We also added a position in SLV 8/21 17 calls @ $ .74, and they closed $ .83.
Today’s market got off to a soft start in the DJIA on the loss of several more orders for BA but it didn’t take long to stabilize and work back to unchanged while the NASDAQ & S&P 500 shot to the upside right out of the gate. At the close we were +217.08 (.86%), NASDAQ +184.61 (1.87%), S&P-500 +47.05 (1.54%), the Russell +20.16 (1.42%) and the Transports +120.08 (1.33%). Market internals were 9:5 on the NYSE and 2:1 on the NASDAQ. Volume was a little higher (window dressing) for the close of the quarter and the half. The DJIA was 27:3 with BA the biggest loser -11.19 or 76 DP’s and the gainers were MSFT & UNH +35, HD +30, GS +28 and AAPL +20 DPs. The Powell / Mnuchin visit to the Financial Services committee was a real snore. The statements were released yesterday and there were no surprises. All the Congressmen and women made their little speeches without actually asking any serious questions…so a typical day on the Hill. The consumer confidence # was 98.1 up from 85.9 and well above the 92 expected. Not so the Chicago PMI which went the other way at 36.6, up from 32.3, but well below the 45 estimates.
Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/nCJrwS4bFWE ... our discord forum link is in the video description.
SECTORS: The news of cancellations by Norwegian Air of 92 737 MAX and 5 787 was followed by another cancellation by BOAC. The stock was +14% yesterday but gave back almost half today. NVDA ran up with the rest of the chip names on the back of last night’s earnings from MU +4.8% and XLNX +7% with a close of $379.91 +11.91 (3.2%) and LCRX $323.46 +15.00 (4.87%). But the start today was TSLA. I will be doing a report over this week-end but the story is from Ark Invests Cathie Wood and she tells a GREAT story for Tesla. The stock finished the day $1079.81 +70.46 (3.2%). From a low of $350 in March, the gain is just under 210%, and the market value of the company has grown to $200 Billion.
FEDEX reported after the close and had a loss of $1.28 vs $7.56 year ago and a slight miss on revenues. After missing 3 of the last 3 quarters numbers, expectations were low and after closing $140.22 +5.67, it ran to $153.01 +12.89 for a total gain for the day of almost $20.00 or 15%. Even though UPS has been able to raise prices and pick up some of the AMZN business that FDX dropped last year, FDX seems to be doing okay in e-commerce.
FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN +..34, BGS +.04, FLO +.15, CPB +.40, CAG +1.57, MDLZ +.42, KHC +.24, CALM +.50, JJSF +2.56, HRL -.07, SJM +